Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "الجدل والمعلومات الخاطئة حول لقاح كوفيد-19" in Arabic language version.
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The base rate fallacy. That means a very critical piece of information is missing, the base rate. The base rate is basically how common some characteristic is in a group. So in this case, the base rate that we care about is what percentage of the country's population has already been vaccinated. And the answer is 71%. Seventy-one percent of the total population of Iceland has been vaccinated. So that's a lot of people.
Counter-intuitively, these statistics show that the death rates for the vaccinated in this age grouping were greater than for the unvaccinated. These numbers have since been heavily promoted and highlighted on social media by anti-vaccine advocates, who use them to argue that vaccination increases the risk of death.
However, this does not indicate that COVID-19 mRNA vaccines are ineffective or put someone at higher risk of death. Firstly, the report is based on projection modelling for when lockdown eases, rather than reporting existing data. Secondly, it is predicting deaths among older, vaccinated individuals because they had the highest jab uptake and the biggest health risk. The report clarifies: "This (modelling) is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake being so high (page 18)."
The base rate fallacy. That means a very critical piece of information is missing, the base rate. The base rate is basically how common some characteristic is in a group. So in this case, the base rate that we care about is what percentage of the country's population has already been vaccinated. And the answer is 71%. Seventy-one percent of the total population of Iceland has been vaccinated. So that's a lot of people.
Counter-intuitively, these statistics show that the death rates for the vaccinated in this age grouping were greater than for the unvaccinated. These numbers have since been heavily promoted and highlighted on social media by anti-vaccine advocates, who use them to argue that vaccination increases the risk of death.
However, this does not indicate that COVID-19 mRNA vaccines are ineffective or put someone at higher risk of death. Firstly, the report is based on projection modelling for when lockdown eases, rather than reporting existing data. Secondly, it is predicting deaths among older, vaccinated individuals because they had the highest jab uptake and the biggest health risk. The report clarifies: "This (modelling) is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake being so high (page 18)."
