Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "2000s United States housing market correction" in English language version.
The home-price bubble feels like the stock-market mania in the spring of 1999, just before the stock bubble burst in early 2000, with all the hype, herd investing and absolute confidence in the inevitability of continuing price appreciation. My blood ran slightly cold at a cocktail party the other night when a recent Yale Medical School graduate told me that she was buying a condo to live in Boston during her year-long internship, so that she could flip it for a profit next year. Tulipmania reigns.Plot of inflation-adjusted home price appreciation in several U.S. cities, 1990–2005:
There has never been a run up in home prices like this.
Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing ... Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun—and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice.
"Dead Zones" | "Danger Zones" | "Safe Havens" |
---|---|---|
Boston | Chicago | Cleveland |
Las Vegas | Los Angeles | Columbus |
Miami | New York | Dallas |
Washington, D.C. / Northern Virginia | San Francisco / Oakland | Houston |
Phoenix | Seattle | Kansas City |
Sacramento | Omaha | |
San Diego | Pittsburgh |
Tully, Shawn (4 May 2006). "Welcome to the Dead Zone". Fortune. Welcome to the dead zone: The great housing bubble has finally started to deflate, and the fall will be harder in some markets than others.
Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. Such developments are representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country ...
With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. The widespread adoption of these models has reduced the costs of evaluating the creditworthiness of borrowers, and in competitive markets cost reductions tend to be passed through to borrowers. Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s.
Leslie Appleton-Young is at a loss for words. The chief economist of the California Assn. of Realtors has stopped using the term 'soft landing' to describe the state's real estate market, saying she no longer feels comfortable with that mild label. ... 'Maybe we need something new. That's all I'm prepared to say,' Appleton-Young said Thursday. ... The Realtors association last month lowered its 2006 sales prediction. That was when Appleton-Young first told the San Diego Union-Tribune that she didn't feel comfortable any longer using 'soft landing.' 'I'm sorry I ever made that comment,' she said Thursday. ... For real estate optimists, the phrase 'soft landing' conveyed the soothing notion that the run-up in values over the last few years would be permanent.
This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices.
In early 2004, he urged homeowners to shift from fixed to floating rate mortgages, and in early 2005, he extolled the virtues of sub-prime borrowing—the extension of credit to unworthy borrowers. Far from the heartless central banker that is supposed to "take the punch bowl away just when the party is getting good," Alan Greenspan turned into an unabashed cheerleader for the excesses of an increasingly asset-dependent U.S. economy. I fear history will not judge the Maestro's legacy kindly.
Reports of falling sales and investors stuck with properties they can't sell are just the beginning. Property owners should worry; so should their lenders.
Part of the rise in housing values since 2000 was justified given the fall in interest rates, but at this point the overall market value of housing has lost touch with economic reality. And there's a nasty correction ahead.
A variety of experts now say, the housing industry appears to be moving from a boom to something that is starting to look a lot like a bust
With economic signals flashing that the housing boom is over, speculation has now turned to how deep the slump will be and how long it will last ... conventional wisdom holds that as long as you don't plan to sell your house any time soon ... you can cash in later. Or can you? The downturn in housing is overlapping with the retirement of the baby boom generation, which starts officially in 2008 ... Most of them are homeowners, and many of them will presumably want to sell their homes, extracting some cash for retirement in the process. Theoretically, that implies a glut of houses for sale, which would surely mitigate an upturn in prices, and could drive them ever lower. ... The house party is over, but we don't yet know how bad the hangover is going to be.
The golden age of McMansions may be coming to an end. These oversized homes—characterized by sprawling layouts on small lots, and built in cookie-cutter style by big developers—fueled much of the housing boom. But thanks to rising energy and mortgage costs, shrinking families and a growing number of retirement-age baby boomers set on downsizing, there are signs of an emerging glut. ... Some boomers in their late 50s are counting on selling their huge houses to help fund retirement. Yet a number of factors are weighing down demand. With the rise in home heating and cooling costs, McMansions are increasingly expensive to maintain. ... The overall slump in the housing market also is crimping big-home sales. ... Meantime, the jump in interest rates has put the cost of a big house out of more people's reach.
Greenspan allowed the tech bubble to fester by first warning about irrational exuberance and then doing nothing about via either monetary policy or, better, proper regulation of the financial system while at the same time becoming the "cheerleader of the new economy". And Greenspan/Bernanke allowed the housing bubble to develop in three ways of increasing importance: first, easy Fed Funds policy (but this was a minor role); second, being asleep at the wheel (together with all the banking regulators) in regulating housing lending; third, by becoming the cheerleaders of the monstrosities that were going under the name of "financial innovations" of housing finance. Specifically, Greenspan explicitly supported in public speeches the development and growth of the risky option ARMs and other exotic mortgage innovations that allowed the subprime and near-prime toxic waste to mushroom.
Alan Greenspan, the United States' central banker, warned American homebuyers that they risk a crash if they continue to drive property prices higher. ... On traditional tests, about a third of U.S. local homes markets are now markedly overpriced.
Reports of falling sales and investors stuck with properties they can't sell are just the beginning. Property owners should worry; so should their lenders.
Greenspan allowed the tech bubble to fester by first warning about irrational exuberance and then doing nothing about via either monetary policy or, better, proper regulation of the financial system while at the same time becoming the "cheerleader of the new economy". And Greenspan/Bernanke allowed the housing bubble to develop in three ways of increasing importance: first, easy Fed Funds policy (but this was a minor role); second, being asleep at the wheel (together with all the banking regulators) in regulating housing lending; third, by becoming the cheerleaders of the monstrosities that were going under the name of "financial innovations" of housing finance. Specifically, Greenspan explicitly supported in public speeches the development and growth of the risky option ARMs and other exotic mortgage innovations that allowed the subprime and near-prime toxic waste to mushroom.
A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventories is taking place, and then we're going to see a major [retrenchment] in hot markets in California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50% from their peaks.