An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances (English Wikipedia)

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Stigler, Stephen M (2013). "The True Title of Bayes's Essay". Statistical Science. 28 (3): 283–288. arXiv:1310.0173. doi:10.1214/13-STS438.

Bayes, Mr; Price, Mr (1763). "An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. By the Late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. Communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S" (PDF). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. 53: 370–418. doi:10.1098/rstl.1763.0053. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-04-10. Retrieved 2011-09-25.
Stigler, Stephen M (2013). "The True Title of Bayes's Essay". Statistical Science. 28 (3): 283–288. arXiv:1310.0173. doi:10.1214/13-STS438.