Base rate fallacy (English Wikipedia)

Welsh, Matthew B.; Navarro, Daniel J. (2012). "Seeing is believing: Priors, trust, and base rate neglect". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 119 (1): 1–14. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.04.001. hdl:2440/41190. ISSN 0749-5978.
Thompson, W.C.; Schumann, E.L. (1987). "Interpretation of Statistical Evidence in Criminal Trials: The Prosecutor's Fallacy and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy". Law and Human Behavior. 11 (3): 167. doi:10.1007/BF01044641. JSTOR 1393631. S2CID 147472915.
Suss, Richard A. (October 4, 2023). "The Prosecutor's Fallacy Framed as a Sample Space Substitution". OSF Preprints. doi:10.31219/osf.io/cs248.
Munk, Timme Bisgaard (1 September 2017). "100,000 false positives for every real terrorist: Why anti-terror algorithms don't work". First Monday. 22 (9). doi:10.5210/fm.v22i9.7126.
Sageman, Marc (2021-02-17). "The Implication of Terrorism's Extremely Low Base Rate". Terrorism and Political Violence. 33 (2): 302–311. doi:10.1080/09546553.2021.1880226. ISSN 0954-6553. S2CID 232341781.
Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel (June 2016). "Bayes and the Law". Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application. 3 (1): 51–77. Bibcode:2016AnRSA...3...51F. doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428. PMC 4934658. PMID 27398389.
Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 321. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
The uncertainty in this range is mainly driven by uncertainty in the likelihood of killing a second child, having killed a first, see: Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 322–323. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
Bar-Hillel, Maya (1980). "The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments" (PDF). Acta Psychologica. 44 (3): 211–233. doi:10.1016/0001-6918(80)90046-3.
Kahneman, Daniel; Amos Tversky (1973). "On the psychology of prediction". Psychological Review. 80 (4): 237–251. doi:10.1037/h0034747. S2CID 17786757.
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1974-09-27). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Koehler, J. J. (2010). "The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges". Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 19: 1–17. doi:10.1017/S0140525X00041157. S2CID 53343238.
Barbey, A. K.; Sloman, S. A. (2007). "Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes". Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 30 (3): 241–254, discussion 255–297. doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001653. PMID 17963533. S2CID 31741077.
Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. (1974). "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Cosmides, Leda; John Tooby (1996). "Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions of the literature on judgment under uncertainty". Cognition. 58: 1–73. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.131.8290. doi:10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8. S2CID 18631755.
Gigerenzer, G.; Hoffrage, U. (1995). "How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats". Psychological Review. 102 (4): 684. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.128.3201. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684. S2CID 16281385.
Hoffrage, U.; Lindsey, S.; Hertwig, R.; Gigerenzer, G. (2000). "Medicine: Communicating Statistical Information". Science. 290 (5500): 2261–2262. doi:10.1126/science.290.5500.2261. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9B18-3. PMID 11188724. S2CID 33050943.
Akl, E. A.; Oxman, A. D.; Herrin, J.; Vist, G. E.; Terrenato, I.; Sperati, F.; Costiniuk, C.; Blank, D.; Schünemann, H. (2011). Schünemann, Holger (ed.). "Using alternative statistical formats for presenting risks and risk reductions". The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2011 (3) CD006776. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD006776.pub2. PMC 6464912. PMID 21412897.
Sedlmeier, P.; Gigerenzer, G. (2001). "Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours". Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 130 (3): 380–400. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.130.3.380. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9504-E. PMID 11561916. S2CID 11147078.
Brase, G. L. (2009). "Pictorial representations in statistical reasoning". Applied Cognitive Psychology. 23 (3): 369–381. doi:10.1002/acp.1460. S2CID 18817707.
Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.; Mulley, A. (2002). "Explaining risks: Turning numerical data into meaningful pictures". BMJ. 324 (7341): 827–830. doi:10.1136/bmj.324.7341.827. PMC 1122766. PMID 11934777.
Kim, Yea-Seul; Walls, Logan A.; Krafft, Peter; Hullman, Jessica (2 May 2019). "A Bayesian Cognition Approach to Improve Data Visualization". Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. pp. 1–14. arXiv:1901.02949. doi:10.1145/3290605.3300912. ISBN 978-1-4503-5970-2. S2CID 57761146.
Girotto, V.; Gonzalez, M. (2001). "Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form". Cognition. 78 (3): 247–276. doi:10.1016/S0010-0277(00)00133-5. PMID 11124351. S2CID 8588451.
Hoffrage, U.; Gigerenzer, G.; Krauss, S.; Martignon, L. (2002). "Representation facilitates reasoning: What natural frequencies are and what they are not". Cognition. 84 (3): 343–352. doi:10.1016/S0010-0277(02)00050-1. PMID 12044739. S2CID 9595672.
Gigerenzer, G.; Hoffrage, U. (1999). "Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999)". Psychological Review. 106 (2): 425. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.425. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9CB4-8.
Kleiter, G. D. (1994). "Natural Sampling: Rationality without Base Rates". Contributions to Mathematical Psychology, Psychometrics, and Methodology. Recent Research in Psychology. pp. 375–388. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4308-3_27. ISBN 978-0-387-94169-1.

fallacyfiles.org (Global: low place; English: low place)

"Logical Fallacy: The Base Rate Fallacy". Fallacyfiles.org. Retrieved 2013-06-15.

findarticles.com (Global: 424^th place; English: 310^th place)

Vacher, H. L. (May 2003). "Quantitative literacy - drug testing, cancer screening, and the identification of igneous rocks". Journal of Geoscience Education: 2. At first glance, this seems perverse: the less the students as a whole use steroids, the more likely a student identified as a user will be a non-user. This has been called the False Positive Paradox - Citing: Gonick, L.; Smith, W. (1993). The cartoon guide to statistics. New York: Harper Collins. p. 49.

guardian.co.uk (Global: 197^th place; English: 356^th place)

observer.guardian.co.uk

Sweeney, John; Law, Bill (July 15, 2001). "Gene find casts doubt on double 'cot death' murders". The Observer. Archived from the original on 2012-07-11.

handle.net (Global: 102^nd place; English: 76^th place)

hdl.handle.net

Welsh, Matthew B.; Navarro, Daniel J. (2012). "Seeing is believing: Priors, trust, and base rate neglect". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 119 (1): 1–14. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.04.001. hdl:2440/41190. ISSN 0749-5978.
Hoffrage, U.; Lindsey, S.; Hertwig, R.; Gigerenzer, G. (2000). "Medicine: Communicating Statistical Information". Science. 290 (5500): 2261–2262. doi:10.1126/science.290.5500.2261. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9B18-3. PMID 11188724. S2CID 33050943.
Sedlmeier, P.; Gigerenzer, G. (2001). "Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours". Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 130 (3): 380–400. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.130.3.380. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9504-E. PMID 11561916. S2CID 11147078.
Gigerenzer, G.; Hoffrage, U. (1999). "Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999)". Psychological Review. 106 (2): 425. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.425. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9CB4-8.

harvard.edu (Global: 18^th place; English: 17^th place)

ui.adsabs.harvard.edu

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel (June 2016). "Bayes and the Law". Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application. 3 (1): 51–77. Bibcode:2016AnRSA...3...51F. doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428. PMC 4934658. PMID 27398389.
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1974-09-27). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. (1974). "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.

huji.ac.il (Global: 3,903^rd place; English: 3,632^nd place)

ratio.huji.ac.il

Bar-Hillel, Maya (1980). "The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments" (PDF). Acta Psychologica. 44 (3): 211–233. doi:10.1016/0001-6918(80)90046-3.

jstor.org (Global: 26^th place; English: 20^th place)

Thompson, W.C.; Schumann, E.L. (1987). "Interpretation of Statistical Evidence in Criminal Trials: The Prosecutor's Fallacy and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy". Law and Human Behavior. 11 (3): 167. doi:10.1007/BF01044641. JSTOR 1393631. S2CID 147472915.

leeds.ac.uk (Global: 5,235^th place; English: 3,879^th place)

reporter.leeds.ac.uk

"Resolution adopted by the Senate (21 October 1998) on the retirement of Professor Sir Roy Meadow". Reporter. No. 428. University of Leeds. 30 November 1998. Archived from the original on 2016-04-16. Retrieved 2015-10-17.

maths.org (Global: low place; English: low place)

plus.maths.org

The population-wide probability of a SIDS fatality was about 1 in 1,303; Meadow generated his 1-in-73 million estimate from the lesser probability of SIDS death in the Clark household, which had lower risk factors (e.g. non-smoking). In this sub-population he estimated the probability of a single death at 1 in 8,500. See: Joyce, H. (September 2002). "Beyond reasonable doubt" (pdf). plus.maths.org. Retrieved 2010-06-12.. Professor Ray Hill questioned even this first step (1/8,500 vs 1/1,300) in two ways: firstly, on the grounds that it was biased, excluding those factors that increased risk (especially that both children were boys) and (more importantly) because reductions in SIDS risk factors will proportionately reduce murder risk factors, so that the relative frequencies of Münchausen syndrome by proxy and SIDS will remain in the same ratio as in the general population: Hill, Ray (2002). "Cot Death or Murder? – Weighing the Probabilities". it is patently unfair to use the characteristics which basically make her a good, clean-living, mother as factors which count against her. Yes, we can agree that such factors make a natural death less likely – but those same characteristics also make murder less likely.

mpg.de (Global: 1,624^th place; English: 1,592^nd place)

edoc.mpg.de

Sedlmeier, P.; Gigerenzer, G. (2001). "Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours". Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 130 (3): 380–400. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.130.3.380. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9504-E. PMID 11561916. S2CID 11147078.
Gigerenzer, G.; Hoffrage, U. (1999). "Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999)". Psychological Review. 106 (2): 425. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.425. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9CB4-8.

mrbartonmaths.com (Global: low place; English: low place)

The population-wide probability of a SIDS fatality was about 1 in 1,303; Meadow generated his 1-in-73 million estimate from the lesser probability of SIDS death in the Clark household, which had lower risk factors (e.g. non-smoking). In this sub-population he estimated the probability of a single death at 1 in 8,500. See: Joyce, H. (September 2002). "Beyond reasonable doubt" (pdf). plus.maths.org. Retrieved 2010-06-12.. Professor Ray Hill questioned even this first step (1/8,500 vs 1/1,300) in two ways: firstly, on the grounds that it was biased, excluding those factors that increased risk (especially that both children were boys) and (more importantly) because reductions in SIDS risk factors will proportionately reduce murder risk factors, so that the relative frequencies of Münchausen syndrome by proxy and SIDS will remain in the same ratio as in the general population: Hill, Ray (2002). "Cot Death or Murder? – Weighing the Probabilities". it is patently unfair to use the characteristics which basically make her a good, clean-living, mother as factors which count against her. Yes, we can agree that such factors make a natural death less likely – but those same characteristics also make murder less likely.

nasa.gov (Global: 75^th place; English: 83^rd place)

ntrs.nasa.gov

Rheinfurth, M. H.; Howell, L. W. (March 1998). Probability and Statistics in Aerospace Engineering. NASA. p. 16. MESSAGE: False positive tests are more probable than true positive tests when the overall population has a low prevalence of the disease. This is called the false-positive paradox.

nih.gov (Global: 4^th place; English: 4^th place)

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel (June 2016). "Bayes and the Law". Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application. 3 (1): 51–77. Bibcode:2016AnRSA...3...51F. doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428. PMC 4934658. PMID 27398389.
Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 321. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
The uncertainty in this range is mainly driven by uncertainty in the likelihood of killing a second child, having killed a first, see: Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 322–323. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1974-09-27). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Barbey, A. K.; Sloman, S. A. (2007). "Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes". Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 30 (3): 241–254, discussion 255–297. doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001653. PMID 17963533. S2CID 31741077.
Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. (1974). "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Hoffrage, U.; Lindsey, S.; Hertwig, R.; Gigerenzer, G. (2000). "Medicine: Communicating Statistical Information". Science. 290 (5500): 2261–2262. doi:10.1126/science.290.5500.2261. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9B18-3. PMID 11188724. S2CID 33050943.
Akl, E. A.; Oxman, A. D.; Herrin, J.; Vist, G. E.; Terrenato, I.; Sperati, F.; Costiniuk, C.; Blank, D.; Schünemann, H. (2011). Schünemann, Holger (ed.). "Using alternative statistical formats for presenting risks and risk reductions". The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2011 (3) CD006776. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD006776.pub2. PMC 6464912. PMID 21412897.
Sedlmeier, P.; Gigerenzer, G. (2001). "Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours". Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 130 (3): 380–400. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.130.3.380. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9504-E. PMID 11561916. S2CID 11147078.
Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.; Mulley, A. (2002). "Explaining risks: Turning numerical data into meaningful pictures". BMJ. 324 (7341): 827–830. doi:10.1136/bmj.324.7341.827. PMC 1122766. PMID 11934777.
Girotto, V.; Gonzalez, M. (2001). "Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form". Cognition. 78 (3): 247–276. doi:10.1016/S0010-0277(00)00133-5. PMID 11124351. S2CID 8588451.
Hoffrage, U.; Gigerenzer, G.; Krauss, S.; Martignon, L. (2002). "Representation facilitates reasoning: What natural frequencies are and what they are not". Cognition. 84 (3): 343–352. doi:10.1016/S0010-0277(02)00050-1. PMID 12044739. S2CID 9595672.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel (June 2016). "Bayes and the Law". Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application. 3 (1): 51–77. Bibcode:2016AnRSA...3...51F. doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428. PMC 4934658. PMID 27398389.
Akl, E. A.; Oxman, A. D.; Herrin, J.; Vist, G. E.; Terrenato, I.; Sperati, F.; Costiniuk, C.; Blank, D.; Schünemann, H. (2011). Schünemann, Holger (ed.). "Using alternative statistical formats for presenting risks and risk reductions". The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2011 (3) CD006776. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD006776.pub2. PMC 6464912. PMID 21412897.
Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.; Mulley, A. (2002). "Explaining risks: Turning numerical data into meaningful pictures". BMJ. 324 (7341): 827–830. doi:10.1136/bmj.324.7341.827. PMC 1122766. PMID 11934777.

psu.edu (Global: 207^th place; English: 136^th place)

citeseerx.ist.psu.edu

Cosmides, Leda; John Tooby (1996). "Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions of the literature on judgment under uncertainty". Cognition. 58: 1–73. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.131.8290. doi:10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8. S2CID 18631755.
Gigerenzer, G.; Hoffrage, U. (1995). "How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats". Psychological Review. 102 (4): 684. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.128.3201. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684. S2CID 16281385.

rss.org.uk (Global: low place; English: low place)

"Royal Statistical Society concerned by issues raised in Sally Clark case" (PDF). 23 October 2001. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 August 2011. Society does not tolerate doctors making serious clinical errors because it is widely understood that such errors could mean the difference between life and death. The case of R v. Sally Clark is one example of a medical expert witness making a serious statistical error, one which may have had a profound effect on the outcome of the case

salford.ac.uk (Global: low place; English: 9,316^th place)

cse.salford.ac.uk

Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 321. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
The uncertainty in this range is mainly driven by uncertainty in the likelihood of killing a second child, having killed a first, see: Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 322–323. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.

semanticscholar.org (Global: 11^th place; English: 8^th place)

api.semanticscholar.org

Thompson, W.C.; Schumann, E.L. (1987). "Interpretation of Statistical Evidence in Criminal Trials: The Prosecutor's Fallacy and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy". Law and Human Behavior. 11 (3): 167. doi:10.1007/BF01044641. JSTOR 1393631. S2CID 147472915.
Sageman, Marc (2021-02-17). "The Implication of Terrorism's Extremely Low Base Rate". Terrorism and Political Violence. 33 (2): 302–311. doi:10.1080/09546553.2021.1880226. ISSN 0954-6553. S2CID 232341781.
Kahneman, Daniel; Amos Tversky (1973). "On the psychology of prediction". Psychological Review. 80 (4): 237–251. doi:10.1037/h0034747. S2CID 17786757.
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1974-09-27). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Koehler, J. J. (2010). "The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges". Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 19: 1–17. doi:10.1017/S0140525X00041157. S2CID 53343238.
Barbey, A. K.; Sloman, S. A. (2007). "Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes". Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 30 (3): 241–254, discussion 255–297. doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001653. PMID 17963533. S2CID 31741077.
Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. (1974). "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457. S2CID 143452957.
Cosmides, Leda; John Tooby (1996). "Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions of the literature on judgment under uncertainty". Cognition. 58: 1–73. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.131.8290. doi:10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8. S2CID 18631755.
Gigerenzer, G.; Hoffrage, U. (1995). "How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats". Psychological Review. 102 (4): 684. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.128.3201. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684. S2CID 16281385.
Hoffrage, U.; Lindsey, S.; Hertwig, R.; Gigerenzer, G. (2000). "Medicine: Communicating Statistical Information". Science. 290 (5500): 2261–2262. doi:10.1126/science.290.5500.2261. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9B18-3. PMID 11188724. S2CID 33050943.
Sedlmeier, P.; Gigerenzer, G. (2001). "Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours". Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 130 (3): 380–400. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.130.3.380. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-9504-E. PMID 11561916. S2CID 11147078.
Brase, G. L. (2009). "Pictorial representations in statistical reasoning". Applied Cognitive Psychology. 23 (3): 369–381. doi:10.1002/acp.1460. S2CID 18817707.
Kim, Yea-Seul; Walls, Logan A.; Krafft, Peter; Hullman, Jessica (2 May 2019). "A Bayesian Cognition Approach to Improve Data Visualization". Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. pp. 1–14. arXiv:1901.02949. doi:10.1145/3290605.3300912. ISBN 978-1-4503-5970-2. S2CID 57761146.
Girotto, V.; Gonzalez, M. (2001). "Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form". Cognition. 78 (3): 247–276. doi:10.1016/S0010-0277(00)00133-5. PMID 11124351. S2CID 8588451.
Hoffrage, U.; Gigerenzer, G.; Krauss, S.; Martignon, L. (2002). "Representation facilitates reasoning: What natural frequencies are and what they are not". Cognition. 84 (3): 343–352. doi:10.1016/S0010-0277(02)00050-1. PMID 12044739. S2CID 9595672.

understandinguncertainty.org (Global: low place; English: low place)

Vincent Scheurer. "Convicted on Statistics?". Retrieved 2010-05-21.

wa.gov (Global: 2,121^st place; English: 1,217^th place)

doh.wa.gov

"COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths by Vaccination Status" (PDF). Washington State Department of Health. 2023-01-18. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2023-01-26. Retrieved 2023-02-14. If the exposure to COVID-19 stays the same, as more individuals are vaccinated, more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will be in vaccinated individuals, as they will continue to make up more and more of the population. For example, if 100% of the population was vaccinated, 100% of cases would be among vaccinated people.

washington.edu (Global: 1,067^th place; English: 749^th place)

idl.cs.washington.edu

Kim, Yea-Seul; Walls, Logan A.; Krafft, Peter; Hullman, Jessica (2 May 2019). "A Bayesian Cognition Approach to Improve Data Visualization". Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. pp. 1–14. arXiv:1901.02949. doi:10.1145/3290605.3300912. ISBN 978-1-4503-5970-2. S2CID 57761146.

web.archive.org (Global: 1^st place; English: 1^st place)

"COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths by Vaccination Status" (PDF). Washington State Department of Health. 2023-01-18. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2023-01-26. Retrieved 2023-02-14. If the exposure to COVID-19 stays the same, as more individuals are vaccinated, more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will be in vaccinated individuals, as they will continue to make up more and more of the population. For example, if 100% of the population was vaccinated, 100% of cases would be among vaccinated people.
"Resolution adopted by the Senate (21 October 1998) on the retirement of Professor Sir Roy Meadow". Reporter. No. 428. University of Leeds. 30 November 1998. Archived from the original on 2016-04-16. Retrieved 2015-10-17.
Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 321. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
"Royal Statistical Society concerned by issues raised in Sally Clark case" (PDF). 23 October 2001. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 August 2011. Society does not tolerate doctors making serious clinical errors because it is widely understood that such errors could mean the difference between life and death. The case of R v. Sally Clark is one example of a medical expert witness making a serious statistical error, one which may have had a profound effect on the outcome of the case
The uncertainty in this range is mainly driven by uncertainty in the likelihood of killing a second child, having killed a first, see: Hill, R. (2004). "Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?" (PDF). Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. 18 (5): 322–323. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2004.00560.x. PMID 15367318. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-13.

wired.com (Global: 193^rd place; English: 152^nd place)

Schneier, Bruce. "Why Data Mining Won't Stop Terror". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 2022-08-30.

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Welsh, Matthew B.; Navarro, Daniel J. (2012). "Seeing is believing: Priors, trust, and base rate neglect". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 119 (1): 1–14. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.04.001. hdl:2440/41190. ISSN 0749-5978.
Schneier, Bruce. "Why Data Mining Won't Stop Terror". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 2022-08-30.
Sageman, Marc (2021-02-17). "The Implication of Terrorism's Extremely Low Base Rate". Terrorism and Political Violence. 33 (2): 302–311. doi:10.1080/09546553.2021.1880226. ISSN 0954-6553. S2CID 232341781.

Base rate fallacy (English Wikipedia)

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