Bradley effect (English Wikipedia)

Ghoogasian, Aram. "How Armenian-Americans Became "White": A Brief History". Ajam Media Collective. Retrieved December 5, 2024. See also United States v. Cartozian, 6 F.2d 919 (D. Or. 1925) (in which, three years before George Deukmejian's birth, the U.S. Attorney General's office sued to remove the naturalization certificate of an Armenian immigrant on the grounds that he was not "white" but "of Armenian blood and race" and therefore a member of the broader "Asiatic" race under existing law). "The words of familiar speech, which were used by the original framers of the [relevant] law, were intended to include only the type of man whom they knew as white ... almost exclusively from the British Isles and Northwestern Europe[,]" the opinion reads, explaining that skin color has been far from the only test of "whiteness" in American white supremacist ideology and that racists very often deem non-white and racially discriminate against people with pale skin and/or of European or Asian descent. Id.

alternet.org

Valdes-Rodriguez, Alisa (November 2, 2008). "The Huxtable Effect" AlterNet

archive.today

Tabin, John. (January 9, 2008). "It's Crying Time Again", The American Spectator
"So how did she do it? How did Hillary Clinton defy Barack Obama's double-digit lead in the New Hampshire polls and pull out a victory yesterday? Hindsight being 20/20, we can now see that she had a few things going for her. ...The Bradley Effect. Named for Tom Bradley, the Los Angeles mayor who narrowly lost the 1982 race for California governor despite a lead in the polls, this is the tendency of black candidates to under-perform their poll numbers. Whether because of closet racism or a more innocent reluctance to appear politically incorrect, a statistically significant number of voters often tell pollsters they'll vote for a black candidate, but turn around and vote for a white opponent in the privacy of the ballot box. The effect seems to have diminished in recent election cycles, but may have played a role in New Hampshire."

bbc.co.uk

news.bbc.co.uk

Will closet racism derail Obama?, BBC News, October 20, 2008

bepress.com

Mathews, Joe (2009) "The Bradley Effect Was about Guns, Not Racism Archived September 25, 2009, at the Wayback Machine" California Journal of Politics and Policy: Vol. 1 : Iss. 1, Article 27. DOI: 10.2202/1944-4370.1054

blackamericaweb.com

Jones, Jackie. (January 2, 2008). "Barack Obama, Unelectable ‘Hopemonger?’ Campaign, Polls Proving the Naysayers Wrong Archived January 4, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", BlackAmericaWeb.com
"Still, there are people who believe what Edley called 'the Bradley factor' could stall Obama's campaign. When Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley ran for governor in California in 1982, all the polls had him leading handily, 'but when people got behind the curtain, they couldn't pull the lever' for him, Edley said. 'The question is to what extent does that Bradley effect still an effect 25 years later?'"

boston.com

Walker, Adrian. (January 4, 2007). "Sharing the Pride", The Boston Globe
"I warned [Deval Patrick], you've got to watch those polls. But I think people are becoming less resistant to saying, 'I'm going to vote for the person whether it's a woman, or gay, or whatever.' There's more openness—but we've still got to watch it."

californiaprogressreport.com

Russo, Frank D. (January 9, 2008). The "Bradley Effect" on Obama-Clinton Polling in New Hampshire May Be Overstated Archived January 13, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
"While the 1982 California gubernatorial contest is not the only race where the race of the candidate has been thought to be a factor in polling gone awry, there are a number of other reasons why the Field Poll may not have been accurate. I spoke with Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Field Poll—whose phone has been ringing off the hook about this today. He told me that there was a memo done by the polling organization shortly after the election to try to understand what had occurred (not available online as it predated the internet) that identified four possible factors:
1. A late shift in voter preference after the poll, which could have reflected bias.
2. A well organized GOP absentee ballot program (Bradley won the day of election results).
3. The presence of a handgun initiative on the same ballot that brought out a skewed electorate different from the model used to predict likely voters.
4. Lower turnout by minorities because Bradley did not turn out the base of black voters.

cbs2chicago.com

Carr, Camilla. (April 12, 1983). "Washington-Epton Race Was Often Ugly", WBBM-TV

cbs5.com

Perez, Simon. (October 9, 2008). "Could Bradley Effect Change November Election? Archived December 5, 2008, at the Wayback Machine" KPIX-TV, "Political Consultant Don Solem explains: 'It's not so much they're afraid to say it as they think it might be taken the wrong way.' Solem said the Bradley Effect is also known as social desirability bias."

cbsnews.com

Whitaker, Bill. (October 12, 2008). "A Matter of Race", CBS News Sunday Morning
"CBS pollster Kathleen Frankovic doesn't see [the Bradley effect] any more. In recent elections with black candidates—Deval Patrick's winning governor's race in Massachusetts, in Tennessee, Harold Ford losing his run for the Senate, both in 2006—the polls were right on.
'I really do believe that the so-called Bradley effect is an artifact of a certain place and a certain time,' she said. 'It's an artifact of the 1980s.'"
Whitaker, Bill. (October 12, 2008). "A Matter of Race", CBS News Sunday Morning
Frankovic, Kathy (September 19, 2008). Does Race Skew Polling?. {{cite book}}: |work= ignored (help)
"Poll Data Doesn't Reflect Bradley Effect". CBS News. November 7, 2008.

citypaper.net

Thompson, Isaiah (October 29, 2008). "The Fishtown Effect". Philadelphia City Paper. Archived from the original on November 2, 2008.

electoral-vote.com

Andrew, Tanenbaum. "News from the Vote Master". Retrieved January 13, 2008.

fivethirtyeight.com

Silver, Nate (August 11, 2008). "The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect". FiveThirtyEight.com. Archived from the original on December 2, 2013. Retrieved August 11, 2008.
Enten, Harry (November 16, 2016). "'Shy' Voters Probably Aren't Why The Polls Missed Trump". fivethirtyeight.com. Retrieved March 4, 2019.

forbes.com

Zogby, John (October 2008). "Are Voters Telling The Truth About Race?". Forbes.

foxnews.com

elections.foxnews.com

Sammon, Bill (September 17, 2008). "Sebelius Revives Fears of 'Bradley Effect' With Race Comment". Fox News Channel. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008.

go.com

abcnews.go.com

""Ballot Changes Cited in Vote's Discrepancy With Polls: Clinton's Favorable Placement on Ballots May Account for Part of Poll Mistakes", Opinion By Jon A. Krosnick, Professor, Stanford University, January 9, 2008". ABC News. Retrieved March 1, 2018.

gregorypayne.net

Payne, Gregory(1986). Tom Bradley: The Impossible Dream : A Biography Roundtable Pub. The chapter about Bradley Effect (Chapter 16 / pp. 243 – 288) is available online at "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 20, 2009. Retrieved October 16, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

harvard.edu

people.iq.harvard.edu

Daniel J. Hopkins (October 4, 2008). "No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female Candidates" (PDF). Department of Government, Harvard University. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 10, 2008. Retrieved October 10, 2008. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)

huffingtonpost.com

Jackson, Natalie (November 7, 2016). "HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes". Retrieved March 1, 2018 – via Huff Post.

jstor.org

Citrin, Jack and Donald Philip Green and David O. Sears. (Spring, 1990). "White Reactions to Black Candidates: When Does Race Matter?", Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 74–96

latimes.com

Luther, Claudia; Paddock, Richard. "George Deukmejian dead at 89, public safety and law-and-order dominated two-term governor's agenda". Retrieved December 5, 2024.
Morrison, Patt. (October 2, 2008). "The 'Bradley effect' in 2008", Los Angeles Times

miamiherald.com

"How was race a factor in Florida election for governor? | Miami Herald". Miami Herald. Archived from the original on November 16, 2018.

msn.com

msnbc.msn.com

Cose, Ellis. (October 30, 2006), "The 'Bradley Effect' Archived February 16, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Newsweek
"Is Harold Ford Jr. really doing as well as the polls suggest? Is he conceivably on his way to becoming the first black Southern senator since Reconstruction? The answer may well be yes, but Ford can hardly take that for granted. As black candidates reaching out to largely white constituencies have discovered in the past, when it comes to measuring political popularity there are lies, damned lies—and polls, on which they rest their fate at their peril."
Alter, Jonathan. (2006, December 25–2, 007, January 1). "Is America Ready? Archived February 9, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Newsweek
"One piece of encouraging news from Tennessee is that the returns showed no signs of the 'Bradley Effect,' in which white voters tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate, then go into the voting booth and choose someone else."

nationalreview.com

campaignspot.nationalreview.com

Geraghty, Jim. (October 9, 2008). "Who's Most Worried About a Bradley Effect? Archived October 12, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", National Review Online

article.nationalreview.com

Derbyshire, John. (May 15, 2007). "None of the Above Archived May 17, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", National Review Online
"When David Dinkins, an African-American, ran for mayor of New York City, he won. He didn't win by anything like the margin the pollsters were predicting, though, and Dinkins's win left those pollsters scratching their heads. Where had the missing Dinkins voters gone? The common conclusion of the pollsters was that race is such a charged issue in the U.S.A. that people will lie about their intentions to vote for a black candidate all the way to the voting booth."

corner.nationalreview.com

Dreher, Rod. (November 21, 2003). "Why Jindal Lost Archived October 7, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", National Review Online
"You might chalk it up to the "Wilder Effect," in which white voters tell pollsters they're going to vote for a minority candidate, but actually vote for the white one. If that were the case, though, Jindal's poll numbers would have held firm during the last week, and he would have received a shock on election day. In fact, his numbers collapsed steadily in the last week of the campaign, when Blanco's powerful commercial (featuring a Republican doctor in a wheelchair saying he was voting Blanco because Jindal is a heartless technocrat) began running in the state, and went unanswered by the Jindal camp. "

nccivitas.org

"North Carolina Statewide Survey Research Report" (PDF). Tel Opinion Research, LLC. August 18, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 9, 2008.

news.google.com

Gary Langer (November 8, 1989). "Election Poll Problems: Did Some Voters Lie?". Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2013.

newsbank.com

nl.newsbank.com

Reddy, Patrick. (January 20, 2002). "Does McCall Have A Chance?", Buffalo News, p. H1
Nelson, Colleen McCain. (August 10, 2002). "Race makes state races hard to call", Dallas Morning News
Black, Chris. (November 9, 1989). "POLLSTERS SAY SOME VOTERS LIE", Boston Globe
Locker, Richard. (November 1, 2006). "Is Ford's white support for real? — Political correctness can skew polling", Memphis Commercial Appeal

npr.org

Chadwick, Alex. (October 6, 2008). "Should Obama Fear The "Bradley Effect"?", NPR
Levin, Blair. (October 21, 2008). Interview, NPR

nytimes.com

Elder, Janet. (May 16, 2007). "Will There Be an 'Obama Effect?'", The New York Times
"In high-profile contests where one of the major party candidates is black, pre-election telephone polls have often been wrong, overstating the strength of the black candidate. In polling circles this is known as the 'Bradley effect' or the 'Wilder effect' or the 'Dinkins effect.'"
"During Jesse Jackson's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1988, Murray Edelman of CBS News and Rutgers University took a look at the effect the race of the interviewer might have had on the way people answered questions about who they intended to vote for. 'White respondents showed more support for Jackson when talking to black interviewers than the other way around,' said Mr. Edelman. 'The support for Jackson was less when white respondents talked to white interviewers.'"
"Writing in The Polling Report, Mr. Brodnitz said the race of the interviewer was not a factor in their polling in 2006. Mr. Brodnitz said that problems in the final pre-election public polls had nothing to do with race, but were caused by methodology. Brodnitz contends that the public polling in the Ford race and perhaps the earlier errors in races with black candidates can be attributed in part to polling not taking full account of the types of voters who make their decisions very late in campaigns. He said those voters tended to be older married white women who were either political moderates or conservatives."
Silver, Nate (October 23, 2024). "Here's What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don't Trust Anyone's Gut, Even Mine". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
Dionne, E. J. Jr. (April 6, 1988). "Dukakis Defeats Jackson Handily in Wisconsin Vote", The New York Times
Rosenthal, Andrew. (November 9, 1989). "The 1989 Elections: Predicting the outcome; Broad disparities in votes and polls raising questions", The New York Times
Kohut, Andrew. (January 10, 2008). "Getting It Wrong", The New York Times
"Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here's the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews. I’ve experienced this myself. In 1989, as a Gallup pollster, I overestimated the support for David Dinkins in his first race for New York City mayor against Rudolph Giuliani; Mr. Dinkins was elected, but with a two percentage point margin of victory, not the 15 I had predicted. I concluded, eventually, that I got it wrong not so much because respondents were lying to our interviewers but because poorer, less well-educated voters were less likely to agree to answer our questions. That was a decisive factor in my miscall."
Levin, Blair. (October 19, 2008). "What Bradley Effect?", The New York Times
"On election night in 1982, with 3,000 supporters celebrating prematurely at a downtown hotel, I was upstairs reviewing early results that suggested Bradley would probably lose. But he wasn't losing because of race. He was losing because an unpopular gun control initiative and an aggressive Republican absentee ballot program generated hundreds of thousands of Republican votes no pollster anticipated, giving Mr. Deukmejian a narrow victory. "
Safire, William (September 26, 2008). "The Bradley Effect". The New York Times Magazine.

select.nytimes.com

(1982, October 13). "AIDE TO COAST G.O.P. CANDIDATE RESIGNS AFTER REMARKS ON RACISM", The New York Times

pewresearch.org

Keeler, Scott and Nilanthi Samaranayake. (February 7, 2007). "Can You Trust What Polls Say about Obama's Electoral Prospects?", Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

philly.com

Polman, Dick. (January 21, 2007). "Barack Obama's race seems to be a second-tier issue", The Philadelphia Inquirer, "The American Debate"
"One can also argue, however, that the wind at Obama's back might not be nearly as strong as it seems. Despite the fact that Americans seem downright bullish about backing a qualified black presidential candidate—in a December Newsweek poll, 93 percent said they would vote for such a person—there is also the nagging possibility that a lot of people don't really mean it, that they merely want to sound PC when the pollster calls.
There's even a name for this kind of behavior. Actually, several names. 'The Bradley effect' is named for black Democrat Tom Bradley, who ran for governor of California in 1982 after serving as mayor of Los Angeles. Whites told pollsters they were pro-Bradley, but on election day they voted for the white Republican, costing Bradley the race. Then there is the 'Wilder effect,' named for black Virginia Democrat Doug Wilder. While running for governor in 1989, he was thought to be ahead by 10 percentage points, buoyed by a big white vote. But in the end, he won in a squeaker because most white voters bailed out.
Jesse Jackson had a similar experience in 1988. As a presidential candidate, he was supposedly cruising toward a primary season win in heavily white Wisconsin. But what the white Democratic voters had told the pollsters, and what they actually did, turned out to be very different, and Jackson was beaten. Colin Powell was well aware of this syndrome when he was weighing a candidacy in 1995; a friend reportedly warned him, 'When they go in the booth, they ain't going to vote for you.'
Some analysts have assumed that the same syndrome helped doom Harold Ford Jr., the black Democrat who lost a Senate race in Tennessee in November by only three percentage points; indeed, he was apparently hurt by a GOP TV ad that implied he partied with white girls. The facts, however, suggest otherwise. His projected share of the white vote, as measured by the pre-election polls, closely tracked his share on election day."
Smerconish, Michael. (October 23, 2008). "Decoding the lawn signs", Philadelphia Daily News
"Conventional wisdom is that people lie to pollsters in elections featuring candidates of different races. That's the Bradley effect, named for Tom Bradley, the L.A. mayor once believed to be a shoo-in for California governor. But the polls got that one all wrong. In a black-white race, the theory says, the black candidate polls better than he'll actually do on Election Day.
I saw this firsthand in '87, when Wilson Goode Sr. was forecast to beat Frank Rizzo by double digits but won by only 2 percent. The post-election explanation? White liberals didn't want to tell a pollster they were voting for Rizzo. "

phillyelectionresults.com

filter.phillyelectionresults.com

"Philadelphia 18th Ward election results". Philadelphia County Board of Elections. November 4, 2008. Archived from the original on November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 5, 2008.

politico.com

Smith, Ben (October 30, 2008). "Race and the economy". The Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2008.
Shepard, Steven (November 3, 2016). "Poll: 'Shy Trump' voters are a mirage". Politico. Retrieved March 4, 2019.

pollster.com

Blumenthal, Mark. (July 3, 2007). "Cell Phones and Political Surveys: Part 1 Archived August 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", Pollster.com

realclearpolitics.com

Tarrance, V. Lance Jr. (October 13, 2008). "The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory". Retrieved October 13, 2008.
"The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory", RealClearPolitics.
Schwartz, Ian (September 25, 2019). "Reporter to Trump: Why Is It Appropriate For A President To Ask A Foreign Leader For Info On Political Rival?". RealClearPolitics.
"Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again | RealClearPolitics".

reallouisiana.com

capitolwatch.reallouisiana.com

Hill, John and Mike Hasten, Melody Brumble and Michelle Mahfoufi. (2003, November 4). "New Orleans mayor crosses party lines, endorses Jindal Archived May 9, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Capitol Watch Archived July 4, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
"Based on his nightly polling data, Kennedy projected the race would be 50.4 percent for Blanco and 49.6 percent for Jindal, which is a statistical tie. As was the case when Jindal had an 11-point lead last week, voters shifted first from Jindal to undecided, Kennedy said."

sacbee.com

Rojas, Aurelio. (October 9, 2008). "California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect' Archived October 10, 2008, at the Wayback Machine" Sacramento Bee, "'Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias,' [Patrick Egan, a professor of politics at New York University] said."
Rojas, Aurelio. (October 9, 2008). "California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect' Archived October 10, 2008, at the Wayback Machine" Sacramento Bee, "DiCamillo said a postelection analysis conducted by his organization found 'nine out of 10' undecided respondents wound up voting for Deukmejian."

salon.com

Koppelman, Alex. (January 24, 2008). "Will whites vote for Barack Obama? Archived October 25, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", Salon.com
"'The argument of a specific Bradley effect,' insisted Langer, 'still looks to me to like a theory in search of data ... I don't see why this effect would be limited, before now, to a handful of elections 15 to 25 years ago. And I don't know how to understand its absence in so many other black-white races—five [Senate and governors'] races in 2006 alone, as I note—in which pre-election polling was dead on.'
'Newton's Law of Gravity doesn't just work on Thursdays,' Langer said. 'You want an effect to be clearly established as an effect through analysis of empirical data, and maybe in more than one election. And to call it an effect you want it to be a consistent effect, or to explain its inconsistency'".

selu.edu

Abade, Rene. (October 10, 2007). "Southeastern Gubernatorial Poll: Jindal holds commanding lead", Southeastern Social Sciences Research Center
"The Southeastern poll results, based on a statewide random sample of 641 registered voters, was conducted Oct. 1–7 and has an overall sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent ... Corbello said a surprising 29 percent of voters said they were undecided or refused to state a preference. However, when the undecided 'leaners' are apportioned among the candidates, Jindal has 49.6 percent, Boasso 11.2 percent, Georges 10.8 percent and Campbell 6.2 percent."

sfgate.com

Fulbright, Leslie (October 21, 2008). "Many think 'Bradley effect' won't hurt Obama". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved October 21, 2008.

southernpoliticalreport.com

"North Carolina Presidential Election Poll" (PDF). InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research. August 19, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 9, 2008.

styleweekly.com

Biegelsen, Amy. (January 9, 2008). "Obama's Wilder Lesson Archived October 7, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", Style Weekly
"In 1989, nobody saw it coming save Paul Goldman, Wilder's longtime political Svengali, and Wilder—now Richmond's mayor—himself. Thanks in part to advice from campaign pollster Michael Donilon, who went on to advise John Kerry's 2004 bid for the White House, Goldman assumed that anything short of a definitive commitment of support from a white poll respondent couldn't be trusted and weighted his poll's statistical model accordingly. His poll indicated a virtual tossup, putting Wilder's chances at 50–50. ... 'This was a historic campaign,' Goldman says. 'Everybody was talking about it—race, race, race—so you give whatever answer's the socially acceptable one.'"

theguardian.com

Siddique, Haroon (January 9, 2008). "Did racist voters cost Obama the primary?". The Guardian. London. Retrieved January 9, 2008.

thesimon.com

Design, Hexalys. "The Palmer Effect Part 2: Yes, We Really Really Can". www.thesimon.com. Archived from the original on April 20, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2018.

time.com

III, William A. Henry (November 15, 1982). "Press: Fighting the Last War". Archived from the original on June 3, 2008. Retrieved March 1, 2018 – via www.time.com.

timesfreepress.com

Rowland, Ashley. (November 12, 2006). "Impact of race on Ford's defeat debated ^{[permanent dead link‍]}", Chattanooga Times Free Press
"Many experts predicted Rep. Ford would lose by a wider margin than he did because some of his white supporters would desert hima pattern first documented in 1982, when former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the California governor's race by a larger-than-expected margin. Researchers said white voters felt social pressure to tell pollsters they would vote for Mr. Bradley, who was black, but voted for his white opponent when they cast their ballots.
Dr. Swain said the close margin of victory in the Corker-Ford contest shows whites did vote for Rep. Ford, and the 'Bradley effect' may be lessening."

washington.edu

uwnews.washington.edu

Schwarz, Joel. (February 6, 2008). "Super Tuesday results indicate race card may be a joker in primaries Archived February 8, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", University of Washington Office of News and Information

washingtonmonthly.com

Kevin Drum, "East Coast Bias Watch", washingtonmonthly.com, July 23, 2008, citing a Google search: "3,820 hits for Wilder Effect compared to 44,900 hits for Bradley Effect". Retrieved 10 July 2021.

washingtonpost.com

Mathews, Jay (December 21, 1991). "JUSTICE DEPARTMENT HALTS PROBE WITHOUT CHARGING L.A.'S BRADLEY". Washington Post. Retrieved December 7, 2024.
Ken Khachigian. (November 2, 2008). "If Obama Loses: Don't Blame the Bradley Effect","The Washington Post
Holmes, Stephen A. (October 12, 2008). Pollsters Debate 'Bradley Effect', The Washington Post, Page A06
"Kohut recently conducted a study in which interviewers spent months repeatedly calling people back until they agreed to talk. He said that helped him see who is often missed in polling. 'Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do,' he said. 'The refusals come from the same class of people who tend to be the most racially intolerant.'"
Robinson, Eugene. (January 11, 2008). "Echoes Of Tom Bradley", The Washington Post
"We'll have plenty of chances in the coming weeks to measure pre-election polls against actual results—including in states with much more racial diversity than New Hampshire. The only prediction I'll make is that following Tuesday's big surprise, embarrassed pollsters and pundits will be especially vigilant for any sign that the 'Bradley effect,' unseen in recent years, might have crept back."
Connors, Elizabeth; Klar, Samara; Krupnikov, Yanna (November 12, 2016). "There may have been shy Trump supporters after all". The Monkey Cage. Retrieved March 4, 2019.

washingtontimes.com

"Obama needs early win to get black vote". The Washington Times. Melissa V. Harris-Lacewell, professor of political science at Princeton University in New Jersey, said black voters don't trust whites who tell pollsters they would vote for a black candidate. She noted the 1989 Virginia gubernatorial campaign of L. Douglas Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond. Mr. Wilder had been leading by double digits in polls but won the election by fewer than 7,000 votes in the gubernatorial election. "So even getting white voters to say to pollsters they will vote for [Mr. Obama] doesn't counteract fully the apprehension black voters have about his electability," Ms. Harris-Lacewell said.

web.archive.org

Payne, Gregory(1986). Tom Bradley: The Impossible Dream : A Biography Roundtable Pub. The chapter about Bradley Effect (Chapter 16 / pp. 243 – 288) is available online at "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 20, 2009. Retrieved October 16, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
III, William A. Henry (November 15, 1982). "Press: Fighting the Last War". Archived from the original on June 3, 2008. Retrieved March 1, 2018 – via www.time.com.
Perez, Simon. (October 9, 2008). "Could Bradley Effect Change November Election? Archived December 5, 2008, at the Wayback Machine" KPIX-TV, "Political Consultant Don Solem explains: 'It's not so much they're afraid to say it as they think it might be taken the wrong way.' Solem said the Bradley Effect is also known as social desirability bias."
Rojas, Aurelio. (October 9, 2008). "California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect' Archived October 10, 2008, at the Wayback Machine" Sacramento Bee, "'Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias,' [Patrick Egan, a professor of politics at New York University] said."
A Base Election After All? Weekly Standard; Aaron Miskin; November 11, 2008
Rojas, Aurelio. (October 9, 2008). "California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect' Archived October 10, 2008, at the Wayback Machine" Sacramento Bee, "DiCamillo said a postelection analysis conducted by his organization found 'nine out of 10' undecided respondents wound up voting for Deukmejian."
Geraghty, Jim. (October 9, 2008). "Who's Most Worried About a Bradley Effect? Archived October 12, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", National Review Online
Derbyshire, John. (May 15, 2007). "None of the Above Archived May 17, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", National Review Online
"When David Dinkins, an African-American, ran for mayor of New York City, he won. He didn't win by anything like the margin the pollsters were predicting, though, and Dinkins's win left those pollsters scratching their heads. Where had the missing Dinkins voters gone? The common conclusion of the pollsters was that race is such a charged issue in the U.S.A. that people will lie about their intentions to vote for a black candidate all the way to the voting booth."
Isaacson, Walter. (April 11, 1983). "The Making of a Litmus Test", Time
Peterson, Bill. (April 4, 1988). "For Jackson, a Potential Breakthrough; On Eve of Primary, Support From White Officials and Wisconsin Voters Appears Strong", The Washington Post
Shapiro, Walter. (November 20, 1989). "Breakthrough in Virginia", Time
"All the published pre-election surveys had shown Wilder leading his Republican rival J. Marshall Coleman by margins of 4% to 15%. Even an initial television exit poll had anointed Wilder with a 10 percentage-point triumph. But by the time Wilder felt comfortable enough to declare victory, his razor-thin lead had stabilized about where it would end up: just 6,582 votes out of a record 1.78 million ballots cast."
Bacon, Perry Jr. (January 23, 2007). "Can Obama Count On the Black Vote?", Time
"More than most politicians, Wilder knows personally how difficult it can be for a black candidate; during his gubernatorial campaign, the gap between his numbers in the final polls and in the actual election showed such a dramatic drop-off that it became known as the 'Wilder Effect.'"
Kurtz, Howard. (1987, November 4). "Goode Holds Slim Majority; Challenger Rizzo Refuses to Concede", The Washington Post, Page A25
West, Paul. (October 6, 2006). "Ford plays against type in bid for Senate upset", The Baltimore Sun
"An independent statewide poll by Mason-Dixon, released this week, has Ford ahead by 1 percentage point. But public opinion surveys are notoriously unreliable when one of the candidates is black. Campaign strategists often subtract a "racial slippage" factor, to account for surveys that might exaggerate a black candidate's strength by up to 9 percentage points.
In North Carolina, a Mason-Dixon poll a week before the 1990 election gave black Democrat Harvey Gantt a 4-point lead over Republican Sen. Jesse Helms; Gantt lost by 6 percentage points.
In the 1989 Virginia governor's race, L. Douglas Wilder, a black Democrat, had an 11-point poll advantage a week before the election; he won by less than 1 point.
Citing the "Wilder effect," Vanderbilt University political scientist Christian Grose wonders whether many Tennesseans who say they're undecided—roughly one in seven voters—might simply be unwilling to tell pollsters they won't back a black candidate."
Gates, Henry Louis Jr. (September 25, 1995). "Powell and the Black Elite", The New Yorker
Barnes, Fred. (November 17, 2003). "The Wilder Effect Archived October 19, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", The Weekly Standard
"Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the 'Wilder effect,' named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced."
Dreher, Rod. (November 21, 2003). "Why Jindal Lost Archived October 7, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", National Review Online
"You might chalk it up to the "Wilder Effect," in which white voters tell pollsters they're going to vote for a minority candidate, but actually vote for the white one. If that were the case, though, Jindal's poll numbers would have held firm during the last week, and he would have received a shock on election day. In fact, his numbers collapsed steadily in the last week of the campaign, when Blanco's powerful commercial (featuring a Republican doctor in a wheelchair saying he was voting Blanco because Jindal is a heartless technocrat) began running in the state, and went unanswered by the Jindal camp. "
Hill, John and Mike Hasten, Melody Brumble and Michelle Mahfoufi. (2003, November 4). "New Orleans mayor crosses party lines, endorses Jindal Archived May 9, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Capitol Watch Archived July 4, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
"Based on his nightly polling data, Kennedy projected the race would be 50.4 percent for Blanco and 49.6 percent for Jindal, which is a statistical tie. As was the case when Jindal had an 11-point lead last week, voters shifted first from Jindal to undecided, Kennedy said."
Deslatte, Melinda. (October 20, 2007). "Jindal wins La. governor's race Archived December 24, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Associated Press
" With about 92 percent of the vote in, Jindal had 625,036 votes or 53 percent—more than enough to win outright and avoid a Nov. 17 runoff. His nearest competitors: Democrat Walter Boasso with 208,690 votes or 18 percent; Independent John Georges had 1167,477 votes or 14 percent; Democrat Foster Campbell had 151,101 or 13 percent. Eight candidates divided the rest."
Cose, Ellis. (October 30, 2006), "The 'Bradley Effect' Archived February 16, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Newsweek
"Is Harold Ford Jr. really doing as well as the polls suggest? Is he conceivably on his way to becoming the first black Southern senator since Reconstruction? The answer may well be yes, but Ford can hardly take that for granted. As black candidates reaching out to largely white constituencies have discovered in the past, when it comes to measuring political popularity there are lies, damned lies—and polls, on which they rest their fate at their peril."
Alter, Jonathan. (2006, December 25–2, 007, January 1). "Is America Ready? Archived February 9, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Newsweek
"One piece of encouraging news from Tennessee is that the returns showed no signs of the 'Bradley Effect,' in which white voters tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate, then go into the voting booth and choose someone else."
Koppelman, Alex. (January 24, 2008). "Will whites vote for Barack Obama? Archived October 25, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", Salon.com
"'The argument of a specific Bradley effect,' insisted Langer, 'still looks to me to like a theory in search of data ... I don't see why this effect would be limited, before now, to a handful of elections 15 to 25 years ago. And I don't know how to understand its absence in so many other black-white races—five [Senate and governors'] races in 2006 alone, as I note—in which pre-election polling was dead on.'
'Newton's Law of Gravity doesn't just work on Thursdays,' Langer said. 'You want an effect to be clearly established as an effect through analysis of empirical data, and maybe in more than one election. And to call it an effect you want it to be a consistent effect, or to explain its inconsistency'".
Henry, William A. III. (November 15, 1982). "Fighting the Last War", Time
"The most tangled polling errors came in California, where almost no one forecast Republican George Deukmejian's 50,000-vote victory over Tom Bradley. Indeed, the Los Angeles Times ran a frontpage story on election morning about the lineup of local politicians vying to succeed Bradley as the city's mayor. The San Francisco Chronicle's first election extra bannered: BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED. While ABC was predicting Deukmejian's victory, its affiliate stations in Los Angeles and San Francisco were using exit polls of their own to call the race for Bradley instead."
Biegelsen, Amy. (January 9, 2008). "Obama's Wilder Lesson Archived October 7, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", Style Weekly
"In 1989, nobody saw it coming save Paul Goldman, Wilder's longtime political Svengali, and Wilder—now Richmond's mayor—himself. Thanks in part to advice from campaign pollster Michael Donilon, who went on to advise John Kerry's 2004 bid for the White House, Goldman assumed that anything short of a definitive commitment of support from a white poll respondent couldn't be trusted and weighted his poll's statistical model accordingly. His poll indicated a virtual tossup, putting Wilder's chances at 50–50. ... 'This was a historic campaign,' Goldman says. 'Everybody was talking about it—race, race, race—so you give whatever answer's the socially acceptable one.'"
Mathews, Joe (2009) "The Bradley Effect Was about Guns, Not Racism Archived September 25, 2009, at the Wayback Machine" California Journal of Politics and Policy: Vol. 1 : Iss. 1, Article 27. DOI: 10.2202/1944-4370.1054
Russo, Frank D. (January 9, 2008). The "Bradley Effect" on Obama-Clinton Polling in New Hampshire May Be Overstated Archived January 13, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
"While the 1982 California gubernatorial contest is not the only race where the race of the candidate has been thought to be a factor in polling gone awry, there are a number of other reasons why the Field Poll may not have been accurate. I spoke with Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Field Poll—whose phone has been ringing off the hook about this today. He told me that there was a memo done by the polling organization shortly after the election to try to understand what had occurred (not available online as it predated the internet) that identified four possible factors:
1. A late shift in voter preference after the poll, which could have reflected bias.
2. A well organized GOP absentee ballot program (Bradley won the day of election results).
3. The presence of a handgun initiative on the same ballot that brought out a skewed electorate different from the model used to predict likely voters.
4. Lower turnout by minorities because Bradley did not turn out the base of black voters.
Sammon, Bill (September 17, 2008). "Sebelius Revives Fears of 'Bradley Effect' With Race Comment". Fox News Channel. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008.
Daniel J. Hopkins (October 4, 2008). "No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female Candidates" (PDF). Department of Government, Harvard University. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 10, 2008. Retrieved October 10, 2008. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
Jones, Jackie. (January 2, 2008). "Barack Obama, Unelectable ‘Hopemonger?’ Campaign, Polls Proving the Naysayers Wrong Archived January 4, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", BlackAmericaWeb.com
"Still, there are people who believe what Edley called 'the Bradley factor' could stall Obama's campaign. When Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley ran for governor in California in 1982, all the polls had him leading handily, 'but when people got behind the curtain, they couldn't pull the lever' for him, Edley said. 'The question is to what extent does that Bradley effect still an effect 25 years later?'"
"North Carolina Presidential Election Poll" (PDF). InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research. August 19, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 9, 2008.
"North Carolina Statewide Survey Research Report" (PDF). Tel Opinion Research, LLC. August 18, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 9, 2008.
Schwarz, Joel. (February 6, 2008). "Super Tuesday results indicate race card may be a joker in primaries Archived February 8, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", University of Washington Office of News and Information
Thompson, Isaiah (October 29, 2008). "The Fishtown Effect". Philadelphia City Paper. Archived from the original on November 2, 2008.
"Philadelphia 18th Ward election results". Philadelphia County Board of Elections. November 4, 2008. Archived from the original on November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 5, 2008.
Design, Hexalys. "The Palmer Effect Part 2: Yes, We Really Really Can". www.thesimon.com. Archived from the original on April 20, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
Silver, Nate (August 11, 2008). "The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect". FiveThirtyEight.com. Archived from the original on December 2, 2013. Retrieved August 11, 2008.
Blumenthal, Mark. (July 3, 2007). "Cell Phones and Political Surveys: Part 1 Archived August 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", Pollster.com
"How was race a factor in Florida election for governor? | Miami Herald". Miami Herald. Archived from the original on November 16, 2018.

weeklystandard.com

Barnes, Fred. (November 17, 2003). "The Wilder Effect Archived October 19, 2008, at the Wayback Machine", The Weekly Standard
"Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the 'Wilder effect,' named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced."

worldcat.org

search.worldcat.org

Silver, Nate (October 23, 2024). "Here's What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don't Trust Anyone's Gut, Even Mine". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

wsj.com

Russo, Sal. (October 20, 2008). "Tom Bradley Didn't Lose Because of Race", The Wall Street Journal
"Private, daily tracking polls showed that, with a retooled campaign, Mr. Deukmejian methodically closed the gap. On the Sunday night before the day of the election—usually the last day of tracking polls the campaign will pay for—Mr. Deukmejian had closed to less than two percentage points. The campaign polled Monday night, too. It showed Mr. Deukmejian less than 1% behind. Private pollster Lawrence Research predicted to the campaign a razor-thin victory—exactly what happened. The public polls stopped polling too soon, missing the Deukmejian surge. Most important, they ignored the absentee ballot. Mr. Deukmejian's polling asked if people had voted absentee; other polls, including the exit polls, did not."

wwltv.com

Deslatte, Melinda. (October 20, 2007). "Jindal wins La. governor's race Archived December 24, 2007, at the Wayback Machine", Associated Press
" With about 92 percent of the vote in, Jindal had 625,036 votes or 53 percent—more than enough to win outright and avoid a Nov. 17 runoff. His nearest competitors: Democrat Walter Boasso with 208,690 votes or 18 percent; Independent John Georges had 1167,477 votes or 14 percent; Democrat Foster Campbell had 151,101 or 13 percent. Eight candidates divided the rest."