Earthquake forecasting (English Wikipedia)

Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "Earthquake forecasting" in English language version.

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E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.

annalsofgeophysics.eu

Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. See also ICEF 2011, p. 327. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.
E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, vol. 2. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.

archive.org

Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, vol. 2. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.

arquivo.pt

Schwartz & Coppersmith 1984; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.2. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019, archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-05-16.

berkeley.edu

seismo.berkeley.edu

Wells & Coppersmith 1994, Fig. 11, p. 993. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. (August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-01-03, retrieved 2016-12-30.

books.google.com

Castellaro 2003 Castellaro, S. (2003), "§2.4.3. The classical earthquake model", in Mulargia, Francesco; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 56–57, ISBN 978-1-4020-1778-0.

doi.org

Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. See also ICEF 2011, p. 327. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.
Kagan 1997b, p. 507. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228, archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, vol. 2. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.
Wells & Coppersmith 1994, Fig. 11, p. 993. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. (August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-01-03, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Zoback 2006 provides a clear explanation. Evans 1997, §2.2 also provides a description of the "self-organized criticality" (SOC) paradigm that is displacing the elastic rebound model. Zoback, Mary Lou (April–May 2006), "The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards" (PDF), GSA Today, 16 (r/5): 4–11, Bibcode:2006GSAT...16d...4Z, doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1. Evans, R. (December 1997), "Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 413–420, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..413E, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06585.x.
Schwartz & Coppersmith 1984; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.2. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019, archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-05-16.
Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 621. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016.

escholarship.org

Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.

geosociety.org

Zoback 2006 provides a clear explanation. Evans 1997, §2.2 also provides a description of the "self-organized criticality" (SOC) paradigm that is displacing the elastic rebound model. Zoback, Mary Lou (April–May 2006), "The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards" (PDF), GSA Today, 16 (r/5): 4–11, Bibcode:2006GSAT...16d...4Z, doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1. Evans, R. (December 1997), "Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 413–420, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..413E, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06585.x.

handle.net

hdl.handle.net

Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. See also ICEF 2011, p. 327. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.
E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, vol. 2. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.

harvard.edu

ui.adsabs.harvard.edu

Kagan 1997b, p. 507. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228, archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Wells & Coppersmith 1994, Fig. 11, p. 993. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. (August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-01-03, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Zoback 2006 provides a clear explanation. Evans 1997, §2.2 also provides a description of the "self-organized criticality" (SOC) paradigm that is displacing the elastic rebound model. Zoback, Mary Lou (April–May 2006), "The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards" (PDF), GSA Today, 16 (r/5): 4–11, Bibcode:2006GSAT...16d...4Z, doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1. Evans, R. (December 1997), "Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 413–420, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..413E, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06585.x.
Schwartz & Coppersmith 1984; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.2. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019, archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-05-16.
Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 621. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016.

nih.gov

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 621. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.

oxfordjournals.org

gji.oxfordjournals.org

Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228, archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.

science.org

Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 621. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.

sciencenet.cn

image.sciencenet.cn

E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.

semanticscholar.org

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Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. See also ICEF 2011, p. 327. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228, archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson 2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004), "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting" (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, doi:10.1029/150GM26, ISBN 0-87590-415-7^{[permanent dead link]}. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, vol. 2. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350, hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82, S2CID 129825964.
Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 621. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.

ucla.edu

moho.ess.ucla.edu

Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228, archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016.

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Schwartz & Coppersmith 1984; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.2. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019, archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-05-16.

usgs.gov

pubs.usgs.gov

Field et al. 2013, p. 2. Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Tom; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J. II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey. Also California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792.
For a list of evaluation metrics available as of 2013 see Table 11 in Field et al. 2013, p. 52. Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Tom; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J. II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey. Also California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792.
Field et al. 2013, p. 2. Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Tom; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J. II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey. Also California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792.

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Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228, archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
"National Seismic Hazard Maps". United States Geological Survey. 25 August 2016. Archived from the original on 10 August 2016. Retrieved 1 September 2016.
Wells & Coppersmith 1994, Fig. 11, p. 993. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. (August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-01-03, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-23, retrieved 2016-12-30.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016.