Earthquake prediction (English Wikipedia)

Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "Earthquake prediction" in English language version.

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Roberts 1983, p. 151, §4. Roberts, J.L. (1983). "Notes on procedure for conveying earthquake forecasts with special reference to the Peru predictions for 1980–1981" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDPRO.
Gersony 1982, p. 248, document 86; Roberts 1983, p. 151. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Roberts, J.L. (1983). "Notes on procedure for conveying earthquake forecasts with special reference to the Peru predictions for 1980–1981" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDPRO.
Gersony 1982, p. 343, document 116; Roberts 1983, p. 152. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Roberts, J.L. (1983). "Notes on procedure for conveying earthquake forecasts with special reference to the Peru predictions for 1980–1981" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDPRO.
Giesecke 1983, p. 68. Giesecke, Albert A. (1983). "Case history of the Peru prediction for 1980–1981" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDPRO. pp. 51–74.

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Chouliaras & Stavrakakis 1999; Pham et al. 1998, pp. 2025, 2028; Pham et al. 1999. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Pham, V. N.; Boyer, D.; Chouliaras, G.; Le Mouël, J. L.; Rossignol, J. C.; Stavrakakis, G. N. (15 June 1998), "Characteristics of electromagnetic noise in the Ioannina region (Greece); a possible origin for so called "Seismic Electric Signals" (SES)" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 25 (12): 2229–2232, Bibcode:1998GeoRL..25.2229P, doi:10.1029/98gl01593, S2CID 129231700. Pham, V. N.; Boyer, D.; Le Mouël, J. L.; Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. N. (1999), "Electromagnetic signals generated in the solid Earth by digital transmission of radio-waves as a plausible source for some so-called 'seismic electric signals'" (PDF), Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 114 (3–4): 141–163, Bibcode:1999PEPI..114..141P, doi:10.1016/s0031-9201(99)00050-3.

aist.go.jp

staff.aist.go.jp

E.g., Sykes, Shaw & Scholz 1999 and Evison 1999. Sykes, Lynn R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Scholz, Christopher H. (1999), "Rethinking Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155 (2–4): 207–232, Bibcode:1999PApGe.155..207S, doi:10.1007/s000240050263, S2CID 11412679. Evison, Frank (October 1999), "On the existence of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Annali di Geofisica, 42 (5): 763–770.

ajr.org

Squires & Rayne 2009; McIntyre 2009. Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon (6 April 2009), "Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering", The Telegraph. McIntyre, Jamie (April–May 2009), "When Outrage Trumps Science: Italian quake prediction produces tabloid tremors", American Journalism Review.

annalsofgeophysics.eu

Tarasov & Tarasova 2009 Tarasov, N. T.; Tarasova, N. V. (18 December 2009), "Spatial-temporal structure of seismicity of the North Tien Shan and its changeunder effect of high energy electromagnetic pulses", Annals of Geophysics, 47 (1), doi:10.4401/ag-3272

archive.org

Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "Volume II. The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, Washington, D. C.: Carnegie institution of Washington. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

arxiv.org

Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Luen & Stark 2008, p. 302. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
Luen & Stark 2008; Console 2001. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809. Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Luen & Stark 2008. This was based on data from Southern California. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
Freund & Sornette 2007. Freund, Friedemann; Sornette, Didier (20 February 2007), "Electro-magnetic earthquake bursts and critical rupture of peroxy bond networks in rocks", Tectonophysics, 431 (1): 33–47, arXiv:physics/0603205, Bibcode:2007Tectp.431...33F, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.05.032, ISSN 0040-1951, S2CID 45310425
Eftaxias et al. 2009. Eftaxias, K.; Athanasopoulou, L.; Balasis, G.; Kalimeri, M.; Nikolopoulos, S.; Contoyiannis, Y.; Kopanas, J.; Antonopoulos, G.; Nomicos, C. (25 November 2009), "Unfolding the procedure of characterizing recorded ultra low frequency, kHZ and MHz electromagetic anomalies prior to the L'Aquila earthquake as pre-seismic ones – Part 1", Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9 (6): 1953–1971, arXiv:0910.0797, Bibcode:2009NHESS...9.1953E, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-1953-2009, ISSN 1561-8633, S2CID 226246369
Eftaxias et al. 2010. Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.; Contoyiannis, Y.; Papadimitriou, C.; Kalimeri, M.; Athanasopoulou, L.; Nikolopoulos, S.; Kopanas, J.; Antonopoulos, G.; Nomicos, C. (16 February 2010), "Unfolding the procedure of characterizing recorded ultra low frequency, kHZ and MHz electromagnetic anomalies prior to the L'Aquila earthquake as pre-seismic ones – Part 2", Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10 (2): 275–294, arXiv:0908.0686, Bibcode:2010NHESS..10..275E, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-275-2010, ISSN 1561-8633, S2CID 73570989
Rundle et al. 2018b Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L. (2018b), "Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175 (2): 647–660, arXiv:1709.10057, Bibcode:2018PApGe.175..647R, doi:10.1007/s00024-017-1720-x, ISSN 1420-9136, S2CID 54169682
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 420; Stein, Friedrich & Newman 2005; Jackson & Kagan 2006; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.2, and references there; Kagan, Jackson & Geller 2012; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew (July–August 2005), "Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 76 (4): 432–436, Bibcode:2005SeiRL..76..432S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J. (November–December 2012), "Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P", Seismological Research Letters, 83 (6): 951–953, arXiv:1207.4836, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, doi:10.1785/0220120107, S2CID 88513151. Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Rouet-Leduc et al. 2017. Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Lubbers, Nicholas; Barros, Kipton; Humphreys, Colin; Johnson, Paul A. (28 September 2017). "Machine Learning Predicts Laboratory Earthquakes". Geophysical Research Letters. 44 (18): 9276–9282. arXiv:1702.05774. Bibcode:2017GeoRL..44.9276R. doi:10.1002/2017GL074677. S2CID 118842086.
Mignan & Broccardo 2019. Mignan, Arnaud; Broccardo, Marco (2 October 2019). "Neural Network Applications in Earthquake Prediction (1994-2019): Meta-Analytic Insight on their Limitations". arXiv:1910.01178. doi:10.1785/0220200021. S2CID 203642017. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
Donges et al. 2016 Donges, J.F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J.F.; Donner, R.V. (2016), "Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series", The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 225 (3): 471–487, arXiv:1508.03534, doi:10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y, ISSN 1951-6355, S2CID 88520803

berkeley.edu

seismo.berkeley.edu

Wells & Coppersmith 1994, p. 993, Fig. 11. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. (August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, S2CID 10561127.

books.google.com

Panel on Earthquake Prediction 1976, p. 9. Panel on Earthquake Prediction of the Committee on Seismology (July 1976). Predicting Earthquakes: A Scientific and Technical Evaluation – with Implications for Society (Report). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Sciences..
Uyeda, Nagao & Kamogawa 2009, p. 205; Hayakawa 2015. Uyeda, Seiya; Nagao, Toshiyasu; Kamogawa, Masashi (29 May 2009), "Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics", Tectonophysics, 470 (3–4): 205–213, Bibcode:2009Tectp.470..205U, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.07.019. Hayakawa, Masashi (2015), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-1-118-77037-5.
Castellaro 2003. Castellaro, S. (2003), "§2.4.3. The classical earthquake model", in Mulargia, Francesco; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 56–57, ISBN 978-1-4020-1778-0.
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Panel on Earthquake Prediction 1976, p. 2. Panel on Earthquake Prediction of the Committee on Seismology (July 1976). Predicting Earthquakes: A Scientific and Technical Evaluation – with Implications for Society (Report). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Sciences..

booksc.org

dlx.booksc.org

Shnirman, Schreider & Dmitrieva 1993; Nishizawa et al. 1993^{[full citation needed]} and Uyeda 1991^{[full citation needed]} Shnirman, M.; Schreider, S.; Dmitrieva, O. (1993), "Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987–1989." (PDF), Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 211–221, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..211S, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90074-t.

ca.gov

seismic.ca.gov

CEPEC 2004a. California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (2 March 2004a), Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services (PDF), archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2013.
CEPEC 2004a; Hough 2010b, pp. 145–146. California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (2 March 2004a), Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services (PDF), archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2013. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.

conservation.ca.gov

Field et al. 2008. Field; et al. (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities) (2008). "The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2)" (PDF). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 99 (4) (published 2009): 2053–2107. Bibcode:2009BuSSA..99.2053F. doi:10.1785/0120080049. Open-File Report 2007-1437.. Also published as California Geological Survey Special Report 203.

develop.oes.ca.gov

CEPEC 2004b. California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (9 December 2004b), Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services.

caltech.edu

resolver.caltech.edu

E.g.: Davies 1975; Whitham et al. 1976, p. 265; Hammond 1976; Ward 1978; Kerr 1979, p. 543; Allen 1982, p. S332; Rikitake 1982; Zoback 1983; Ludwin 2001; Jackson 2004, pp. 335, 344; ICEF 2011, p. 328. Davies, D. (27 November 1975), "Earthquake prediction in China", Nature, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0, S2CID 4266855. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Hammond, Allen L. (7 May 1976), "Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California", Science, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538, PMID 17745640. Ward, Peter L. (1978), "Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Geophysical predictions, National Academy of Sciences. Kerr, Richard A. (2 November 1979), "Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane", Science, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542, PMID 17759414. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1982), "Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72 (6B): S331–S335, Bibcode:1982BuSSA..72S.331A, doi:10.1785/BSSA07206B0331. Rikitake, Tsuneji (1982), Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications. Zoback, Mark D. (21 October 1983), "Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]", Science, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319, PMID 17734830. Ludwin, Ruth (May 2001), "Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Washington Geology, 28 (3): 27–28. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

authors.library.caltech.edu

Kerr 2004; Bakun et al. 2005, Harris & Arrowsmith 2006, p. S5. Kerr, Richard A. (8 October 2004), "Parkfield Keeps Secrets After A Long-Awaited Quake", Science, 306 (5694): 206–7, doi:10.1126/science.306.5694.206, PMID 15472043, S2CID 32455927. Bakun, W. H.; Aagaard, B.; Dost, B.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Harris, R. A.; Ji, C.; Johnston, M. J. S.; Langbein, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Michael, A. J.; Murray, J. R.; Nadeau, R. M.; Reasenberg, P. A.; Reichle, M. S.; Roeloffs, E. A.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R. W.; Simpson, R. W.; Waldhauser, F. (13 October 2005), "Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake", Nature, 437 (7061): 969–974, Bibcode:2005Natur.437..969B, doi:10.1038/nature04067, PMID 16222291, S2CID 4389712. Harris, Ruth A.; Arrowsmith, J Ramon (September 2006), "Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake and the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S1 – S5, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S...1H, doi:10.1785/0120050831.

gps.caltech.edu

Kanamori & Stewart 1978, abstract. Kanamori, Hiroo; Stewart, Gordon S. (10 July 1978), "Seismological Aspects of the Guatemala Earthquake of February 4, 1976" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 83 (B7): 3427–3434, Bibcode:1978JGR....83.3427K, doi:10.1029/JB083iB07p03427.

citeulike.org

Wyss & Booth 1997, p. 424. Wyss, Max; Booth, David C. (1997), "The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 423–424, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..423W, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06587.x.

crid.or.cr

Allen 1983, p. 79; Whitcomb 1977. Allen, Clarence R. (1983). "The Southern California Earthquake Prediction of 1976: A Prediction Unfulfilled" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDRO. pp. 77–82. Whitcomb, J. H. (1977), "An update of time-dependent vp/vs and ^Vp in an area of the Transverse Range of southern California [abstract]" (PDF), Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 305.

dias.ie

mtnet.dias.ie

Park 1996, p. 493. Park, S. (July 1996), "Precursors to earthquakes: seismoelectromagnetic signals" (PDF), Surveys in Geophysics, 17 (4): 493–516, Bibcode:1996SGeo...17..493P, doi:10.1007/BF01901642, S2CID 55247676.

docs.google.com

Allen 1983, p. 79; Whitcomb 1977. Allen, Clarence R. (1983). "The Southern California Earthquake Prediction of 1976: A Prediction Unfulfilled" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDRO. pp. 77–82. Whitcomb, J. H. (1977), "An update of time-dependent vp/vs and ^Vp in an area of the Transverse Range of southern California [abstract]" (PDF), Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 305.

doi.org

Kagan (1997b, §2.1) says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted …" Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Kagan, Yan Y.; Knopoff, Leon (19 June 1987), "Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction", Science, 236 (4808): 1563–1567, Bibcode:1987Sci...236.1563K, doi:10.1126/science.236.4808.1563, PMID 17835741, S2CID 12946111.
ICEF (2011, p. 327) distinguishes between predictions (as deterministic) and forecasts (as probabilistic). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
However, Mileti & Sorensen (1990) have argued that the extent of panic related to public disaster forecasts, and the 'cry wolf' problem with respect to repeated false alarms, have both been overestimated, and can be mitigated through appropriate communications from the authorities. Mileti, Dennis; Sorensen, John (August 1990). Communication of Emergency Public Warnings (Report). doi:10.2172/6137387. Retrieved 20 September 2016 – via OSTI.GOV.
Evans (1997, §2.2) provides a description of the "self-organized criticality" (SOC) paradigm that is displacing the elastic rebound model. Evans, R. (December 1997), "Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 413–420, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..413E, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06585.x.
Of course these were not the only earthquakes in this period. The attentive reader will recall that, in seismically active areas, earthquakes of some magnitude happen fairly constantly. The "Parkfield earthquakes" are either the ones noted in the historical record, or were selected from the instrumental record on the basis of location and magnitude. Jackson & Kagan (2006, p. S399) and Kagan (1997, pp. 211–212, 213) argue that the selection parameters can bias the statistics, and that sequences of four or six quakes, with different recurrence intervals, are also plausible. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Kagan, Yan Y. (15 March 1997). "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment" (PDF). Tectonophysics (FTP). pp. 207–219. Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
According to Wang et al. (2006, p. 762) foreshocks were widely understood to precede a large earthquake, "which may explain why various [local authorities] made their own evacuation decisions". Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Varotsos & Lazaridou (1991) Table 2 (p. 340) and Table 3 (p. 341) includes nine predictions (unnumbered) from 27 April 1987 to 28 April 1988, with a tenth prediction issued on 26 February 1987 mentioned in a footnote. Two of these earthquakes were excluded from Table 3 on the grounds of having occurred in neighboring Albania. Table 1 (p. 333) includes 17 predictions (numbered) issued from 15 May 1988 to 23 July 1989. A footnote mentions a missed (unpredicted) earthquake on 19 March 1989; all 17 entries show associated earthquakes, and presumably are thereby deemed to have been successful predictions. Table 4 (p. 345) is a continuation of Table 1 (p. 346) out to 30 November 1989, adding five additional predictions with associated earthquakes. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2.
While some analyses have been done on the basis of a 100 km range (e.g., Hamada 1993, p. 205), Varotsos & Lazaridou (1991, p. 339) claim credit for earthquakes within a radius of 120 km. Hamada, Kazuo (30 August 1993), "Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates", Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 203–210, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..203H, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90073-S. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616, following Allen 1976, p. 2070, who in turn followed Wood & Gutenberg 1935. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1976), "Responsibilities in earthquake prediction", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66 (6): 2069–2074, Bibcode:1976BuSSA..66.2069A, doi:10.1785/BSSA0660062069. Wood, H. O.; Gutenberg, B. (6 September 1935), "Earthquake prediction", Science, 82 (2123): 219–320, Bibcode:1935Sci....82..219W, doi:10.1126/science.82.2123.219, PMID 17818812.
Kagan 1997b, p. 507. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, p. 427, §2.3; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
ICEF 2011, p. 328; Jackson 2004, p. 344. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
Wang et al. 2006. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Geller 1997, Summary. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Kagan 1997b; Geller 1997; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Luen & Stark 2008, p. 302. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
Luen & Stark 2008; Console 2001. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809. Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Jackson 1996a, p. 3775. Jackson, David D. (April 1996a), "Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction", Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 93 (9): 3772–3775, Bibcode:1996PNAS...93.3772J, doi:10.1073/pnas.93.9.3772, PMC 39435, PMID 11607663.
Console 2001, p. 1261. Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Luen & Stark 2008. This was based on data from Southern California. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
Wade 1977. Wade, Nicholas (14 October 1977), "Briefing: More Flowers, less Cabbage", Science, 198 (4313): 176–177, Bibcode:1977Sci...198..176W, doi:10.1126/science.198.4313.176-a, PMID 17755352, S2CID 26607710.
Hall 2011; Cartlidge 2011. Additional details in Cartlidge 2012. Hall, Stephen S. (15 September 2011), "At Fault?" (PDF), Nature, 477 (7364): 264–269, Bibcode:2011Natur.477..264H, doi:10.1038/477264a, PMID 21921895, S2CID 205067216. Cartlidge, Edwin (3 June 2011), "Quake Experts to Be Tried For Manslaughter", Science, 332 (6034): 1135–1136, Bibcode:2011Sci...332.1135C, doi:10.1126/science.332.6034.1135, PMID 21636750. Cartlidge, Edwin (12 October 2012), "Aftershocks in the Courtroom", Science, 338 (6104): 184–188, Bibcode:2012Sci...338..184C, doi:10.1126/science.338.6104.184, PMID 23066054.
Geller 1997, p. 437, §5.2. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Atwood & Major 1998. Atwood, L. Erwin; Major, Ann Marie (November 1998), "Exploring the "Cry Wolf" Hypothesis", International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 16 (3): 279–302, doi:10.1177/028072709801600303, S2CID 111790086.
Saegusa 1999. Saegusa, A. (28 January 1999), "China clamps down on inaccurate warnings", Nature, 397 (6717): 284, Bibcode:1999Natur.397..284W, doi:10.1038/16756, PMID 9950418, S2CID 4314191.
Stiros 1997. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Stiros 1997, p. 483. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Uyeda, Nagao & Kamogawa 2009, p. 205; Hayakawa 2015. Uyeda, Seiya; Nagao, Toshiyasu; Kamogawa, Masashi (29 May 2009), "Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics", Tectonophysics, 470 (3–4): 205–213, Bibcode:2009Tectp.470..205U, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.07.019. Hayakawa, Masashi (2015), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-1-118-77037-5.
Geller 1997, §3.1. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Geller 1997, p. 429, §3. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Rikitake 1979, p. 294. Cicerone, Ebel & Britton 2009 has a more recent compilation Rikitake, Tsuneji (1 May 1979), "Classification of earthquake precursors", Tectonophysics, 54 (3–4): 293–309, Bibcode:1979Tectp..54..293R, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(79)90372-X. Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James (25 October 2009), "A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 476 (3–4): 371–396, Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.
Jackson 2004, p. 335. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
Geller 1997, p. 425. See also: Jackson 2004, p. 348: "The search for precursors has a checkered history, with no convincing successes." Zechar & Jordan 2008, p. 723: "The consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors...". ICEF 2009: "... no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H. (2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 172 (2): 715–724, Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (2 October 2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013.
Wyss & Booth 1997, p. 424. Wyss, Max; Booth, David C. (1997), "The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 423–424, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..423W, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06587.x.
ICEF 2011, p. 338. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 361. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 336; Lott, Hart & Howell 1981, p. 1204. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Howell, Mary W. (December 1981), "Retrospective Studies of Unusual Animal Behavior as an Earthquake Predictor", Geophysical Research Letters, 8 (12): 1203–1206, Bibcode:1981GeoRL...8.1203L, doi:10.1029/GL008i012p01203.
Woith, Heiko; Petersen, Gesa M.; Hainzl, Sebastian; Dahm, Torsten (June 2018). "Review: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 108 (3A): 1031–1045. doi:10.1785/0120170313.
Lott, Hart & Howell 1981. Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Howell, Mary W. (December 1981), "Retrospective Studies of Unusual Animal Behavior as an Earthquake Predictor", Geophysical Research Letters, 8 (12): 1203–1206, Bibcode:1981GeoRL...8.1203L, doi:10.1029/GL008i012p01203.
Brown & Kulik 1977. Brown, Roger; Kulik, James (1977), "Flashbulb memories", Cognition, 5 (1): 73–99, doi:10.1016/0010-0277(77)90018-X, S2CID 53195074.
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Main et al. 2012, p. 215. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, p. 217. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, p. 215; Hammond 1973. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254.
Hammond 1974. Hammond, Allen L. (3 May 1974), "Dilatancy: Growing Acceptance as an Earthquake Mechanism", Science, 184 (4136): 551–552, Bibcode:1974Sci...184..551H, doi:10.1126/science.184.4136.551, PMID 17755025.
Scholz, Sykes & Aggarwal 1973, quoted by Hammond 1973. Scholz, Christopher H.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Aggarwal, Yah P. (31 August 1973), "Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis", Science, 181 (4102): 803–810, Bibcode:1973Sci...181..803S, doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.803, PMID 17816227. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254.
ICEF 2011, pp. 333–334; McEvilly & Johnson 1974; Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. McEvilly, T.V.; Johnson, L.R. (April 1974), "Stability of P an S velocities from Central California quarry blasts", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64 (2): 343–353, Bibcode:1974BuSSA..64..343M, doi:10.1785/BSSA0640020343, S2CID 130963434. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Main et al. 2012, p. 226. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, pp. 220–221, 226; see also Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Hammond 1973. Additional references in Geller 1997, §2.4. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Scholz, Sykes & Aggarwal 1973. Scholz, Christopher H.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Aggarwal, Yah P. (31 August 1973), "Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis", Science, 181 (4102): 803–810, Bibcode:1973Sci...181..803S, doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.803, PMID 17816227.
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McEvilly & Johnson 1974. McEvilly, T.V.; Johnson, L.R. (April 1974), "Stability of P an S velocities from Central California quarry blasts", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64 (2): 343–353, Bibcode:1974BuSSA..64..343M, doi:10.1785/BSSA0640020343, S2CID 130963434.
ICEF 2011, p. 333. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Cicerone, Ebel & Britton 2009, p. 382. Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James (25 October 2009), "A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 476 (3–4): 371–396, Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.
ICEF 2011, p. 334; Hough 2010b, pp. 93–95. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
Park 1996, p. 493. Park, S. (July 1996), "Precursors to earthquakes: seismoelectromagnetic signals" (PDF), Surveys in Geophysics, 17 (4): 493–516, Bibcode:1996SGeo...17..493P, doi:10.1007/BF01901642, S2CID 55247676.
See Geller 1996a and Geller 1996b for some history of these hopes. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Geller, R. J. (27 May 1996b), "Debate on evaluation of the VAN method: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1291–1293, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1291G, doi:10.1029/96GL00742.
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Park, Dalrymple & Larsen 2007, paragraphs 1 and 32. See also Johnston et al. 2006, p. S218 "no VAN-type SES observed" and Kappler, Morrison & Egbert 2010 "no effects found that can be reasonably characterized as precursors". Park, Stephen K.; Dalrymple, William; Larsen, Jimmy C. (2007), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Test of the electromagnetic precursor hypothesis", Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (B5): B05302, Bibcode:2007JGRB..112.5302P, doi:10.1029/2005JB004196. Johnston, M. J. S.; Sasai, Y.; Egbert, G. D.; Mueller, R. J. (September 2006), "Seismomagnetic Effects from the Long-Awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkf1eld Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S206 – S220, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.206J, doi:10.1785/0120050810, S2CID 129965769. Kappler, K. N.; Morrison, H. Frank; Egbert, G. D. (April 2010), "Long((en))term monitoring of ULF electromagnetic fields at Parkfield, California" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B4): B04406, Bibcode:2010JGRB..115.4406K, doi:10.1029/2009JB006421.
ICEF 2011, p. 335, Summary. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Nomicos 1981, described by Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32, and Kagan 1997b, p. 512, §3.3.1. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K. (1981), "Seven-hour precursors to earthquakes determined from telluric currents", Praktika of the Academy of Athens, 56: 417–433. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 100. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 120. Italicization from the original. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 117, Table 3; Varotsos et al. 1986; Varotsos & Lazaridou 1991, p. 341, Table 3; Varotsos et al. 1996a, p. 55, Table 3. These are examined in more detail in 1983–1995: Greece (VAN). Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K.; Lazaridou, M. (1986), "Earthquake prediction and electric signals", Nature, 322 (6075): 120, Bibcode:1986Natur.322..120V, doi:10.1038/322120a0, S2CID 4304127. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76.
Chouliaras & Stavrakakis 1999, p. 223. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x.
Geller 1996b; "Table of contents". Geophysical Research Letters. 23 (11). 27 May 1996. doi:10.1002/grl.v23.11. Geller, R. J. (27 May 1996b), "Debate on evaluation of the VAN method: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1291–1293, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1291G, doi:10.1029/96GL00742.
The proceedings were published as A Critical Review of VAN (Lighthill 1996). See Jackson & Kagan (1998) for a summary critique. Lighthill, James, ed. (1996), A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals, London: World Scientific Publishing, ISBN 978-981-02-2670-1. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418.
Geller et al. 1998; Anagnostopoulos 1998. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324; Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Jackson & Kagan 1998; Stiros 1997, p. 478. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
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Rundle et al. 2019 Rundle, John B.; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.; Crutchfield, James P.; Donnellan, Andrea (2019), "Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy", Earth and Space Science, 6 (1): 191–197, Bibcode:2019E&SS....6..191R, doi:10.1029/2018EA000464, ISSN 2333-5084, PMC 6392127, PMID 30854411
Rundle et al. 2018b Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L. (2018b), "Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175 (2): 647–660, arXiv:1709.10057, Bibcode:2018PApGe.175..647R, doi:10.1007/s00024-017-1720-x, ISSN 1420-9136, S2CID 54169682
Luginbuhl, Rundle & Turcotte 2019 Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L. (14 January 2019), "Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 377 (2136): 20170397, Bibcode:2019RSPTA.37770397L, doi:10.1098/rsta.2017.0397, PMC 6282405, PMID 30478209
Pasari 2019 Pasari, Sumanta (1 April 2019), "Nowcasting Earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal Region", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176 (4): 1417–1432, Bibcode:2019PApGe.176.1417P, doi:10.1007/s00024-018-2037-0, ISSN 1420-9136, S2CID 134896312
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Luginbuhl et al. 2018 Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Hawkins, Angela; Turcotte, Donald L. (2018), "Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175 (1): 49–65, Bibcode:2018PApGe.175...49L, doi:10.1007/s00024-017-1678-8, ISSN 1420-9136, S2CID 134725994
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Reid 1910, p. 22; ICEF 2011, p. 329. Reid, Harry Fielding (1910), "Volume II. The Mechanics of the Earthquake.", The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, Washington, D. C.: Carnegie institution of Washington. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Wells & Coppersmith 1994, p. 993, Fig. 11. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. (August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, S2CID 10561127.
Zoback 2006 provides a clear explanation. Zoback, Mary Lou (April–May 2006), "The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards", GSA Today, 16 (r/5): 4–11, Bibcode:2006GSAT...16d...4Z, doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1, S2CID 129036731.
Schwartz & Coppersmith 1984; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.2. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
Field et al. 2008. Field; et al. (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities) (2008). "The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2)" (PDF). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 99 (4) (published 2009): 2053–2107. Bibcode:2009BuSSA..99.2053F. doi:10.1785/0120080049. Open-File Report 2007-1437.. Also published as California Geological Survey Special Report 203.
Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 619. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.
Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 621. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.
Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S408 say the claim of quasi-periodicity is "baseless". Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 420; Stein, Friedrich & Newman 2005; Jackson & Kagan 2006; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.2, and references there; Kagan, Jackson & Geller 2012; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew (July–August 2005), "Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 76 (4): 432–436, Bibcode:2005SeiRL..76..432S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J. (November–December 2012), "Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P", Seismological Research Letters, 83 (6): 951–953, arXiv:1207.4836, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, doi:10.1785/0220120107, S2CID 88513151. Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Cowan, Nicol & Tonkin 1996; Stein & Newman 2004, p. 185. Cowan, Hugh; Nicol, Andrew; Tonkin, Philip (10 March 1996), "A comparison of historical and paleoseismicity in a newly formed fault zone and a mature fault zone, North Canterbury, New Zealand", Journal of Geophysical Research, 101 (B3): 6021–6036, Bibcode:1996JGR...101.6021C, doi:10.1029/95JB01588, hdl:10182/3334. Stein, Seth; Newman, Andrew (March–April 2004), "Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: application to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 75 (2): 173–187, Bibcode:2004SeiRL..75..173S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.75.2.173.
Stein & Newman 2004. Stein, Seth; Newman, Andrew (March–April 2004), "Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: application to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 75 (2): 173–187, Bibcode:2004SeiRL..75..173S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.75.2.173.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210.
See details in Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.4. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
Kossobokov et al. 1999. Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H. (1999). "Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992–1997". Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors. 111 (3–4): 187–196. Bibcode:1999PEPI..111..187K. doi:10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00159-9.
Geller et al. 1997. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228.
Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.1. Hough 2010b, chapter 12, provides a good description. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, par. 6. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.1. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, §4 show how suitable selection of parameters shows "DMR": Decelerating Moment Release. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, par. 1, 73. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Mignan 2011, Abstract. Mignan, Arnaud (June 2011), "Retrospective on the Accelerating Seismic Release (ASR) hypothesis: controversy and new horizons", Tectonophysics, 505 (1–4): 1–16, Bibcode:2011Tectp.505....1M, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.03.010.
Rouet-Leduc et al. 2017. Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Lubbers, Nicholas; Barros, Kipton; Humphreys, Colin; Johnson, Paul A. (28 September 2017). "Machine Learning Predicts Laboratory Earthquakes". Geophysical Research Letters. 44 (18): 9276–9282. arXiv:1702.05774. Bibcode:2017GeoRL..44.9276R. doi:10.1002/2017GL074677. S2CID 118842086.
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Mignan & Broccardo 2019. Mignan, Arnaud; Broccardo, Marco (2 October 2019). "Neural Network Applications in Earthquake Prediction (1994-2019): Meta-Analytic Insight on their Limitations". arXiv:1910.01178. doi:10.1785/0220200021. S2CID 203642017. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
Tarasov & Tarasova 2009 Tarasov, N. T.; Tarasova, N. V. (18 December 2009), "Spatial-temporal structure of seismicity of the North Tien Shan and its changeunder effect of high energy electromagnetic pulses", Annals of Geophysics, 47 (1), doi:10.4401/ag-3272
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Whitham et al. (1976, p. 266) provide a brief report. Raleigh et al. (1977) has a fuller account. Wang et al. (2006, p. 779), after careful examination of the records, set the death toll at 2,041. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Raleigh, C. B.; Bennett, G.; Craig, H.; Hanks, T.; Molnar, P.; Nur, A.; Savage, J.; Scholz, C.; Turner, R.; Wu, F. (May 1977), "Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake", Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 236–272, Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236. By the Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Raleigh et al. 1977, p. 266, quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Geller has a whole section (§4.1) of discussion and many sources. See also Kanamori 2003, pp. 1210–11. Raleigh, C. B.; Bennett, G.; Craig, H.; Hanks, T.; Molnar, P.; Nur, A.; Savage, J.; Scholz, C.; Turner, R.; Wu, F. (May 1977), "Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake", Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 236–272, Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236. By the Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Lomnitz (1994, Ch. 2) describes some of circumstances attending to the practice of seismology at that time; Turner 1993, pp. 456–458 has additional observations. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Lomnitz, Cinna (1994), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, New York: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0-471-57419-8, OCLC 647404423. Turner, Ralph H. (November 1993), "Reflections on the Past and Future of Social Research on Earthquake Warnings", International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 11 (3): 454–468, doi:10.1177/028072709301100314, S2CID 112795022.
Jackson 2004, p. 345. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
Kanamori 2003, p. 1211. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Wang et al. 2006, p. 785. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Hough 2010, p. 114. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
John Filson, deputy chief of the USGS Office of Earthquake Studies, quoted by Hough (2010, p. 116). Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
Hough 2010, p. 117. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
Gersony 1982, p. 416; Kerr 1981. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Kerr, Richard A. (20 February 1981), "Prediction of huge Peruvian quakes quashed", Science, 211 (4484): 808–809, Bibcode:1981Sci...211..808K, doi:10.1126/science.211.4484.808, PMID 17740381.
Geller (1997, §6) describes some of the coverage. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Bakun & McEvilly 1979; Bakun & Lindh 1985; Kerr 1984. Bakun, W. H.; McEvilly, T. V. (28 September 1979), "Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences", Science, 205 (4413): 1375–1377, Bibcode:1979Sci...205.1375B, doi:10.1126/science.205.4413.1375, PMID 17732330, S2CID 28922627. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434. Kerr, Richard A. (6 January 1984), "Stalking the Next Parkfield Earthquake", Science, 223 (4631): 36–38, Bibcode:1984Sci...223...36K, doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.36, PMID 17752978.
Kerr, R. A. (1984). "How to Catch an Earthquake". Science. 223 (4631): 38. doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.38. PMID 17752979.
Kerr 1984, "How to Catch an Earthquake"; Roeloffs & Langbein 1994. Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John (August 1994), "The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California", Reviews of Geophysics, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114.
Roeloffs & Langbein 1994, p. 316. Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John (August 1994), "The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California", Reviews of Geophysics, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114.
Quoted by Geller 1997, p. 440. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Kerr 2004; Bakun et al. 2005, Harris & Arrowsmith 2006, p. S5. Kerr, Richard A. (8 October 2004), "Parkfield Keeps Secrets After A Long-Awaited Quake", Science, 306 (5694): 206–7, doi:10.1126/science.306.5694.206, PMID 15472043, S2CID 32455927. Bakun, W. H.; Aagaard, B.; Dost, B.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Harris, R. A.; Ji, C.; Johnston, M. J. S.; Langbein, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Michael, A. J.; Murray, J. R.; Nadeau, R. M.; Reasenberg, P. A.; Reichle, M. S.; Roeloffs, E. A.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R. W.; Simpson, R. W.; Waldhauser, F. (13 October 2005), "Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake", Nature, 437 (7061): 969–974, Bibcode:2005Natur.437..969B, doi:10.1038/nature04067, PMID 16222291, S2CID 4389712. Harris, Ruth A.; Arrowsmith, J Ramon (September 2006), "Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake and the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S1 – S5, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S...1H, doi:10.1785/0120050831.
Kagan 1997. Kagan, Yan Y. (15 March 1997). "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment" (PDF). Tectonophysics (FTP). pp. 207–219. Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 117, Table 3. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Jackson & Kagan 1998. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418.
Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456.
Geller 1997, p. 436, §4.5: "VAN's 'predictions' never specify the windows, and never state an unambiguous expiration date. Thus VAN are not making earthquake predictions in the first place." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Jackson 1996b, p. 1363. Also: Rhoades & Evison (1996, p. 1373): No one "can confidently state, except in the most general terms, what the VAN hypothesis is, because the authors of it have nowhere presented a thorough formulation of it." Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. (27 May 1996), "The VAN earthquake predictions", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792.
Kagan & Jackson 1996, p. 1434. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996). "Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: comments and reflections" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters (FTP). pp. 1433–1436. Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1433K. doi:10.1029/95GL03786.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
Geller 1997, p. 436, Table 1. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 37. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x.
Hamada 1993 10 successful predictions out of 12 issued (defining success as those that occurred within 22 days of the prediction, within 100 km of the predicted epicenter and with a magnitude difference (predicted minus true) not greater than 0.7.) Hamada, Kazuo (30 August 1993), "Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates", Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 203–210, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..203H, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90073-S.
Shnirman, Schreider & Dmitrieva 1993; Nishizawa et al. 1993^{[full citation needed]} and Uyeda 1991^{[full citation needed]} Shnirman, M.; Schreider, S.; Dmitrieva, O. (1993), "Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987–1989." (PDF), Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 211–221, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..211S, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90074-t.
"Table of contents". Geophysical Research Letters. 23 (11). 27 May 1996. doi:10.1002/grl.v23.11.; Aceves, Park & Strauss 1996. Aceves, Richard L.; Park, Stephen K.; Strauss, David J. (27 May 1996), "Statistical evaluation of the VAN Method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1425–1428, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1425A, doi:10.1029/96GL01478, ISSN 1944-8007.
Varotsos & Lazaridou 1996b; Varotsos, Eftaxias & Lazaridou 1996. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (27 May 1996b), "Reply to "The VAN earthquake predictions," by D. A. Rhoades and F. F. Evison", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1375–1378, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1375V, doi:10.1029/96GL00910, ISSN 1944-8007. Varotsos, P.; Eftaxias, K.; Lazaridou, M. (27 May 1996), "Reply I to "VAN: Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game" and "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN Case so far"", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1331–1334, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1331V, doi:10.1029/96GL01436, ISSN 1944-8007.
Varotsos et al. 2013 Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Lazaridou, M. S. (18 March 2013), "Seismic Electric Signals: An additional fact showing their physical interconnection with seismicity" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 589: 116–125, Bibcode:2013Tectp.589..116V, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2012.12.020.
Christopoulos, Skordas & Sarlis 2020 Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G.; Skordas, Efthimios S.; Sarlis, Nicholas V. (17 January 2020), "On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis", Applied Sciences, 10 (2): 662, doi:10.3390/app10020662, ISSN 2076-3417
Donges et al. 2016 Donges, J.F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J.F.; Donner, R.V. (2016), "Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series", The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 225 (3): 471–487, arXiv:1508.03534, doi:10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y, ISSN 1951-6355, S2CID 88520803
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Geller 1996a, p. 184 ("ranges not given, or vague"); Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32 ("large indetermination in the parameters"); Rhoades & Evison 1996, p. 1372 ("falls short"); Jackson 1996b, p. 1364 ("have never been fully specified"); Jackson & Kagan 1998, p. 573 ("much too vague"); Wyss & Allmann 1996, p. 1307 ("parameters not defined"). Stavrakakis & Drakopoulos (1996) discuss some specific cases in detail. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. (27 May 1996), "The VAN earthquake predictions", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Wyss, M.; Allmann, L. (1996), "Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with prediction in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: the VAN case", Geophysical Research Letters, 22 (11): 1307–1310, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1307W, doi:10.1029/95GL03548. Stavrakakis, George N.; Drakopoulos, John (27 May 1996), "The VAN method: Contradictory and misleading results since 1981", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1347–1350, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1347S, doi:10.1029/95gl03546.
Geller 1997, p. 436. Geller (1996a, pp. 183–189, §6) discusses this at length. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238
Telegram 39, issued 1 September 1988, in Varotsos & Lazaridou 1991, p. 337, Fig. 21. See figure 26 (p. 344) for a similar telegram. See also telegrams 32 and 41 (figures 15 and 16, pp. 115-116) in Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b. This same pair of predictions is apparently presented as Telegram 10 in Table 1, p. 50, of Varotsos et al. 1996a. Text from several telegrams is presented in Table 2 (p. 54), and faxes of a similar character. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76.
Varotsos et al. (1996a) they also cite Hamada's claim of a 99.8% confidence level. Geller (1996a, p. 214) finds that this "was based on the premise that 6 out of 12 telegrams" were in fact successful predictions, which is questioned. Kagan (1996, p. 1315) finds that in Shnirman et al. "several variables ... have been modified to achieve the result." Geller et al. (1998, p. 98) mention other "flaws such as overly generous crediting of successes, using strawman null hypotheses and failing to account for properly for a posteriori "tuning" of parameters." Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417 Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Kagan 1996, p. 1318. Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Stiros 1997, p. 482. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Anagnostopoulos 1998. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Apostolidis 2008; Uyeda & Kamogawa 2008; Chouliaras 2009; Uyeda 2010.^{[full citation needed]} Apostolidis, C. (10 February 2008), "Problepsi gia seismo 6 rixter", Ethnos (in Greek), Pegasus Publishing, archived from the original on 15 July 2016, retrieved 16 July 2016. Uyeda, Seiya; Kamogawa, Masashi (23 September 2008), "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece", Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 89 (39): 363, Bibcode:2008EOSTr..89..363U, doi:10.1029/2008EO390002, ISSN 2324-9250. Chouliaras, G. (2009), "Seismicity anomalies prior to 8 June 2008 earthquake in Western Greece", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 327–335, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-327-2009.
Papadopoulos 2010. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003.
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e.g., ICEF 2011, p. 327. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Geller (1997, §4.4) cites several authors to say "it seems unreasonable to cite the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake as having fulfilled forecasts of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake on the San Andreas Fault." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
ICEF 2011, p. 320. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Alexander 2010, p. 326. Alexander, David E. (2010), "The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response", Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2 (4): 325–342, Bibcode:2010JNRPR...2..325A, doi:10.1080/19390459.2010.511450, S2CID 153641723.
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ICEF (2011, p. 323) alludes to predictions made on 17 February and 10 March. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Kerr 2009; Hall 2011, p. 267; Alexander 2010, p. 330. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Hall, Stephen S. (15 September 2011), "At Fault?" (PDF), Nature, 477 (7364): 264–269, Bibcode:2011Natur.477..264H, doi:10.1038/477264a, PMID 21921895, S2CID 205067216. Alexander, David E. (2010), "The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response", Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2 (4): 325–342, Bibcode:2010JNRPR...2..325A, doi:10.1080/19390459.2010.511450, S2CID 153641723.
Kerr 2009; Squires & Rayne 2009. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon (6 April 2009), "Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering", The Telegraph.
Dollar 2010; Kerr 2009. Dollar, John (5 April 2010), "The man who predicted an earthquake", The Guardian. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897.
ICEF 2011, pp. 323, 335. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Geller 1997 found "no obvious successes". Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Kagan 1997b, p. 505 "The results of efforts to develop earthquake prediction methods over the last 30 years have been disappointing: after many monographs and conferences and thousands of papers we are no closer to a working forecast than we were in the 1960s". Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
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Schwartz & Coppersmith (1984, pp. 5696–7) argued that the characteristics of fault rupture on a given fault "can be considered essentially constant through several seismic cycles". The expectation of a regular rate of occurrence that accounts for all other factors was rather disappointed by the lateness of the Parkfield earthquake. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681.
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GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

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Ziv, Cochard & Schmittbuhl 2007. Ziv, A.; Cochard, A.; Schmittbuhl, J. (2007), "Does Elastic Rebound Theory apply to Seismic Faults?", in Carpinteri, Alberto; Lacidogna, Giuseppi (eds.), Selected Papers from the 11th International Conference on Fracture, Turin, Italy, March 20–25, 2005, pp. 51–55, doi:10.1201/9780203936115.ch7 (inactive 11 November 2024), ISBN 978-0-415-44402-6{{citation}}: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of November 2024 (link) (eBook: ISBN 978-0-203-93611-5.

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ICEF (2011, p. 327) distinguishes between predictions (as deterministic) and forecasts (as probabilistic). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 328; Jackson 2004, p. 344. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
ICEF 2011, p. 338. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 361. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 336; Lott, Hart & Howell 1981, p. 1204. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Howell, Mary W. (December 1981), "Retrospective Studies of Unusual Animal Behavior as an Earthquake Predictor", Geophysical Research Letters, 8 (12): 1203–1206, Bibcode:1981GeoRL...8.1203L, doi:10.1029/GL008i012p01203.
Main et al. 2012, p. 215. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, p. 217. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, p. 215; Hammond 1973. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254.
ICEF 2011, pp. 333–334; McEvilly & Johnson 1974; Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. McEvilly, T.V.; Johnson, L.R. (April 1974), "Stability of P an S velocities from Central California quarry blasts", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64 (2): 343–353, Bibcode:1974BuSSA..64..343M, doi:10.1785/BSSA0640020343, S2CID 130963434. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Main et al. 2012, p. 226. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, pp. 220–221, 226; see also Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
ICEF 2011, p. 333. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 334; Hough 2010b, pp. 93–95. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
ICEF 2011, p. 335. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
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E.g.: Davies 1975; Whitham et al. 1976, p. 265; Hammond 1976; Ward 1978; Kerr 1979, p. 543; Allen 1982, p. S332; Rikitake 1982; Zoback 1983; Ludwin 2001; Jackson 2004, pp. 335, 344; ICEF 2011, p. 328. Davies, D. (27 November 1975), "Earthquake prediction in China", Nature, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0, S2CID 4266855. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Hammond, Allen L. (7 May 1976), "Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California", Science, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538, PMID 17745640. Ward, Peter L. (1978), "Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Geophysical predictions, National Academy of Sciences. Kerr, Richard A. (2 November 1979), "Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane", Science, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542, PMID 17759414. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1982), "Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72 (6B): S331–S335, Bibcode:1982BuSSA..72S.331A, doi:10.1785/BSSA07206B0331. Rikitake, Tsuneji (1982), Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications. Zoback, Mark D. (21 October 1983), "Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]", Science, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319, PMID 17734830. Ludwin, Ruth (May 2001), "Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Washington Geology, 28 (3): 27–28. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
e.g., ICEF 2011, p. 327. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 320. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF (2011, p. 323) alludes to predictions made on 17 February and 10 March. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, pp. 323, 335. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Cowan, Nicol & Tonkin 1996. Cowan, Hugh; Nicol, Andrew; Tonkin, Philip (10 March 1996), "A comparison of historical and paleoseismicity in a newly formed fault zone and a mature fault zone, North Canterbury, New Zealand", Journal of Geophysical Research, 101 (B3): 6021–6036, Bibcode:1996JGR...101.6021C, doi:10.1029/95JB01588, hdl:10182/3334.
Martucci et al. 2021 Martucci, Matteo; Sparvoli, Roberta; Bartocci, Simona; Battiston, Roberto; Burger, William Jerome; Campana, Donatella; Carfora, Luca; Castellini, Guido; Conti, Livio; Contin, Andrea; De Donato, Cinzia (2021), "Trapped Proton Fluxes Estimation Inside the South Atlantic Anomaly Using the NASA AE9/AP9/SPM Radiation Models along the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite Orbit", Applied Sciences, 11 (8): 3465, doi:10.3390/app11083465, hdl:11585/870881.
ICEF 2011, p. 360. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

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Kagan (1997b, §2.1) says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted …" Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Kagan, Yan Y.; Knopoff, Leon (19 June 1987), "Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction", Science, 236 (4808): 1563–1567, Bibcode:1987Sci...236.1563K, doi:10.1126/science.236.4808.1563, PMID 17835741, S2CID 12946111.
Evans (1997, §2.2) provides a description of the "self-organized criticality" (SOC) paradigm that is displacing the elastic rebound model. Evans, R. (December 1997), "Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 413–420, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..413E, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06585.x.
Of course these were not the only earthquakes in this period. The attentive reader will recall that, in seismically active areas, earthquakes of some magnitude happen fairly constantly. The "Parkfield earthquakes" are either the ones noted in the historical record, or were selected from the instrumental record on the basis of location and magnitude. Jackson & Kagan (2006, p. S399) and Kagan (1997, pp. 211–212, 213) argue that the selection parameters can bias the statistics, and that sequences of four or six quakes, with different recurrence intervals, are also plausible. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Kagan, Yan Y. (15 March 1997). "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment" (PDF). Tectonophysics (FTP). pp. 207–219. Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
According to Wang et al. (2006, p. 762) foreshocks were widely understood to precede a large earthquake, "which may explain why various [local authorities] made their own evacuation decisions". Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Varotsos & Lazaridou (1991) Table 2 (p. 340) and Table 3 (p. 341) includes nine predictions (unnumbered) from 27 April 1987 to 28 April 1988, with a tenth prediction issued on 26 February 1987 mentioned in a footnote. Two of these earthquakes were excluded from Table 3 on the grounds of having occurred in neighboring Albania. Table 1 (p. 333) includes 17 predictions (numbered) issued from 15 May 1988 to 23 July 1989. A footnote mentions a missed (unpredicted) earthquake on 19 March 1989; all 17 entries show associated earthquakes, and presumably are thereby deemed to have been successful predictions. Table 4 (p. 345) is a continuation of Table 1 (p. 346) out to 30 November 1989, adding five additional predictions with associated earthquakes. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2.
While some analyses have been done on the basis of a 100 km range (e.g., Hamada 1993, p. 205), Varotsos & Lazaridou (1991, p. 339) claim credit for earthquakes within a radius of 120 km. Hamada, Kazuo (30 August 1993), "Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates", Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 203–210, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..203H, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90073-S. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616, following Allen 1976, p. 2070, who in turn followed Wood & Gutenberg 1935. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1976), "Responsibilities in earthquake prediction", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66 (6): 2069–2074, Bibcode:1976BuSSA..66.2069A, doi:10.1785/BSSA0660062069. Wood, H. O.; Gutenberg, B. (6 September 1935), "Earthquake prediction", Science, 82 (2123): 219–320, Bibcode:1935Sci....82..219W, doi:10.1126/science.82.2123.219, PMID 17818812.
Kagan 1997b, p. 507. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, p. 427, §2.3; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
ICEF 2011, p. 328; Jackson 2004, p. 344. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
Wang et al. 2006. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Geller 1997, Summary. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
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Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Luen & Stark 2008, p. 302. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
Luen & Stark 2008; Console 2001. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809. Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Jackson 1996a, p. 3775. Jackson, David D. (April 1996a), "Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction", Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 93 (9): 3772–3775, Bibcode:1996PNAS...93.3772J, doi:10.1073/pnas.93.9.3772, PMC 39435, PMID 11607663.
Jones 1985, p. 1669. Jones, Lucille M. (December 1985), "Foreshocks and time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern California", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 75 (6): 1669–1679, Bibcode:1985BuSSA..75.1667J.
Console 2001, p. 1261. Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Luen & Stark 2008. This was based on data from Southern California. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
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Geller 1997, p. 437, §5.2. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
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Stiros 1997. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Stiros 1997, p. 483. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Uyeda, Nagao & Kamogawa 2009, p. 205; Hayakawa 2015. Uyeda, Seiya; Nagao, Toshiyasu; Kamogawa, Masashi (29 May 2009), "Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics", Tectonophysics, 470 (3–4): 205–213, Bibcode:2009Tectp.470..205U, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.07.019. Hayakawa, Masashi (2015), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-1-118-77037-5.
Geller 1997, §3.1. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Geller 1997, p. 429, §3. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Rikitake 1979, p. 294. Cicerone, Ebel & Britton 2009 has a more recent compilation Rikitake, Tsuneji (1 May 1979), "Classification of earthquake precursors", Tectonophysics, 54 (3–4): 293–309, Bibcode:1979Tectp..54..293R, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(79)90372-X. Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James (25 October 2009), "A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 476 (3–4): 371–396, Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.
Jackson 2004, p. 335. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
Geller 1997, p. 425. See also: Jackson 2004, p. 348: "The search for precursors has a checkered history, with no convincing successes." Zechar & Jordan 2008, p. 723: "The consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors...". ICEF 2009: "... no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H. (2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 172 (2): 715–724, Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (2 October 2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013.
Wyss & Booth 1997, p. 424. Wyss, Max; Booth, David C. (1997), "The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors", Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 423–424, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..423W, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06587.x.
ICEF 2011, p. 336; Lott, Hart & Howell 1981, p. 1204. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Howell, Mary W. (December 1981), "Retrospective Studies of Unusual Animal Behavior as an Earthquake Predictor", Geophysical Research Letters, 8 (12): 1203–1206, Bibcode:1981GeoRL...8.1203L, doi:10.1029/GL008i012p01203.
Lott, Hart & Howell 1981. Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Howell, Mary W. (December 1981), "Retrospective Studies of Unusual Animal Behavior as an Earthquake Predictor", Geophysical Research Letters, 8 (12): 1203–1206, Bibcode:1981GeoRL...8.1203L, doi:10.1029/GL008i012p01203.
Main et al. 2012, p. 215. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, p. 217. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, p. 215; Hammond 1973. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254.
Hammond 1974. Hammond, Allen L. (3 May 1974), "Dilatancy: Growing Acceptance as an Earthquake Mechanism", Science, 184 (4136): 551–552, Bibcode:1974Sci...184..551H, doi:10.1126/science.184.4136.551, PMID 17755025.
Scholz, Sykes & Aggarwal 1973, quoted by Hammond 1973. Scholz, Christopher H.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Aggarwal, Yah P. (31 August 1973), "Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis", Science, 181 (4102): 803–810, Bibcode:1973Sci...181..803S, doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.803, PMID 17816227. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254.
ICEF 2011, pp. 333–334; McEvilly & Johnson 1974; Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964. McEvilly, T.V.; Johnson, L.R. (April 1974), "Stability of P an S velocities from Central California quarry blasts", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64 (2): 343–353, Bibcode:1974BuSSA..64..343M, doi:10.1785/BSSA0640020343, S2CID 130963434. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Main et al. 2012, p. 226. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237.
Main et al. 2012, pp. 220–221, 226; see also Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Hammond 1973. Additional references in Geller 1997, §2.4. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Scholz, Sykes & Aggarwal 1973. Scholz, Christopher H.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Aggarwal, Yah P. (31 August 1973), "Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis", Science, 181 (4102): 803–810, Bibcode:1973Sci...181..803S, doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.803, PMID 17816227.
Aggarwal et al. 1975. Aggarwal, Yash P.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Simpson, David W.; Richards, Paul G. (10 February 1975), "Spatial and Temporal Variations in t_s/t_p and in P Wave Residuals at Blue Mountain Lake, New York: Application to Earthquake Prediction", Journal of Geophysical Research, 80 (5): 718–732, Bibcode:1975JGR....80..718A, doi:10.1029/JB080i005p00718.
McEvilly & Johnson 1974. McEvilly, T.V.; Johnson, L.R. (April 1974), "Stability of P an S velocities from Central California quarry blasts", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64 (2): 343–353, Bibcode:1974BuSSA..64..343M, doi:10.1785/BSSA0640020343, S2CID 130963434.
Cicerone, Ebel & Britton 2009, p. 382. Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James (25 October 2009), "A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 476 (3–4): 371–396, Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.
Park 1996, p. 493. Park, S. (July 1996), "Precursors to earthquakes: seismoelectromagnetic signals" (PDF), Surveys in Geophysics, 17 (4): 493–516, Bibcode:1996SGeo...17..493P, doi:10.1007/BF01901642, S2CID 55247676.
See Geller 1996a and Geller 1996b for some history of these hopes. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Geller, R. J. (27 May 1996b), "Debate on evaluation of the VAN method: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1291–1293, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1291G, doi:10.1029/96GL00742.
Park, Dalrymple & Larsen 2007, paragraphs 1 and 32. See also Johnston et al. 2006, p. S218 "no VAN-type SES observed" and Kappler, Morrison & Egbert 2010 "no effects found that can be reasonably characterized as precursors". Park, Stephen K.; Dalrymple, William; Larsen, Jimmy C. (2007), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Test of the electromagnetic precursor hypothesis", Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (B5): B05302, Bibcode:2007JGRB..112.5302P, doi:10.1029/2005JB004196. Johnston, M. J. S.; Sasai, Y.; Egbert, G. D.; Mueller, R. J. (September 2006), "Seismomagnetic Effects from the Long-Awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkf1eld Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S206 – S220, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.206J, doi:10.1785/0120050810, S2CID 129965769. Kappler, K. N.; Morrison, H. Frank; Egbert, G. D. (April 2010), "Long((en))term monitoring of ULF electromagnetic fields at Parkfield, California" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B4): B04406, Bibcode:2010JGRB..115.4406K, doi:10.1029/2009JB006421.
Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Nomicos 1981, described by Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32, and Kagan 1997b, p. 512, §3.3.1. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K. (1981), "Seven-hour precursors to earthquakes determined from telluric currents", Praktika of the Academy of Athens, 56: 417–433. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 100. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 120. Italicization from the original. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 117, Table 3; Varotsos et al. 1986; Varotsos & Lazaridou 1991, p. 341, Table 3; Varotsos et al. 1996a, p. 55, Table 3. These are examined in more detail in 1983–1995: Greece (VAN). Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K.; Lazaridou, M. (1986), "Earthquake prediction and electric signals", Nature, 322 (6075): 120, Bibcode:1986Natur.322..120V, doi:10.1038/322120a0, S2CID 4304127. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76.
Chouliaras & Stavrakakis 1999, p. 223. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x.
Geller 1996b; "Table of contents". Geophysical Research Letters. 23 (11). 27 May 1996. doi:10.1002/grl.v23.11. Geller, R. J. (27 May 1996b), "Debate on evaluation of the VAN method: Editor's introduction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1291–1293, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1291G, doi:10.1029/96GL00742.
The proceedings were published as A Critical Review of VAN (Lighthill 1996). See Jackson & Kagan (1998) for a summary critique. Lighthill, James, ed. (1996), A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals, London: World Scientific Publishing, ISBN 978-981-02-2670-1. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418.
Geller et al. 1998; Anagnostopoulos 1998. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324; Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Jackson & Kagan 1998; Stiros 1997, p. 478. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Drakopoulos, Stavrakakis & Latoussakis 1993, pp. 223, 236; Stavrakakis & Drakopoulos 1996; Wyss 1996, p. 1301. Drakopoulos, J.; Stavrakakis, G.N.; Latoussakis, J. (30 August 1993), "Evaluation and interpretation of thirteen official van – telegrams for the period September 10, 1986 to April 28, 1988.", Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 223–236, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..223D, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90075-U. Stavrakakis, George N.; Drakopoulos, John (27 May 1996), "The VAN method: Contradictory and misleading results since 1981", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1347–1350, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1347S, doi:10.1029/95gl03546. Wyss, M. (1996), "Brief summary of some reasons why the VAN hypothesis for predicting earthquakes has to be rejected", A critical review of VAN, London: Lighthill, S. J. World Scientific, pp. 250–266.
Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Gruszow et al. 1996, p. 2027. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Gruszow, S.; Rossignol, J. C.; Tzanis, A.; Le Mouël, J. L. (1 August 1996), "Identification and analysis of electromagnetic signals in Greece: the case of the Kozani earthquake VAN prediction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (16): 2025–2028, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.2025G, doi:10.1029/96GL02170.
Gruszow et al. 1996, p. 2025. Gruszow, S.; Rossignol, J. C.; Tzanis, A.; Le Mouël, J. L. (1 August 1996), "Identification and analysis of electromagnetic signals in Greece: the case of the Kozani earthquake VAN prediction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (16): 2025–2028, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.2025G, doi:10.1029/96GL02170.
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Zoback 2006 provides a clear explanation. Zoback, Mary Lou (April–May 2006), "The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards", GSA Today, 16 (r/5): 4–11, Bibcode:2006GSAT...16d...4Z, doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1, S2CID 129036731.
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Field et al. 2008. Field; et al. (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities) (2008). "The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2)" (PDF). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 99 (4) (published 2009): 2053–2107. Bibcode:2009BuSSA..99.2053F. doi:10.1785/0120080049. Open-File Report 2007-1437.. Also published as California Geological Survey Special Report 203.
Bakun & Lindh 1985, p. 619. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434.
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Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S408 say the claim of quasi-periodicity is "baseless". Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 420; Stein, Friedrich & Newman 2005; Jackson & Kagan 2006; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.2, and references there; Kagan, Jackson & Geller 2012; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew (July–August 2005), "Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 76 (4): 432–436, Bibcode:2005SeiRL..76..432S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J. (November–December 2012), "Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P", Seismological Research Letters, 83 (6): 951–953, arXiv:1207.4836, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, doi:10.1785/0220120107, S2CID 88513151. Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Cowan, Nicol & Tonkin 1996; Stein & Newman 2004, p. 185. Cowan, Hugh; Nicol, Andrew; Tonkin, Philip (10 March 1996), "A comparison of historical and paleoseismicity in a newly formed fault zone and a mature fault zone, North Canterbury, New Zealand", Journal of Geophysical Research, 101 (B3): 6021–6036, Bibcode:1996JGR...101.6021C, doi:10.1029/95JB01588, hdl:10182/3334. Stein, Seth; Newman, Andrew (March–April 2004), "Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: application to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 75 (2): 173–187, Bibcode:2004SeiRL..75..173S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.75.2.173.
Stein & Newman 2004. Stein, Seth; Newman, Andrew (March–April 2004), "Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: application to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 75 (2): 173–187, Bibcode:2004SeiRL..75..173S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.75.2.173.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210.
See details in Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.4. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
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Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.1. Hough 2010b, chapter 12, provides a good description. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, par. 6. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.1. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, §4 show how suitable selection of parameters shows "DMR": Decelerating Moment Release. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, par. 1, 73. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Mignan 2011, Abstract. Mignan, Arnaud (June 2011), "Retrospective on the Accelerating Seismic Release (ASR) hypothesis: controversy and new horizons", Tectonophysics, 505 (1–4): 1–16, Bibcode:2011Tectp.505....1M, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.03.010.
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Whitham et al. (1976, p. 266) provide a brief report. Raleigh et al. (1977) has a fuller account. Wang et al. (2006, p. 779), after careful examination of the records, set the death toll at 2,041. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Raleigh, C. B.; Bennett, G.; Craig, H.; Hanks, T.; Molnar, P.; Nur, A.; Savage, J.; Scholz, C.; Turner, R.; Wu, F. (May 1977), "Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake", Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 236–272, Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236. By the Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Raleigh et al. 1977, p. 266, quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Geller has a whole section (§4.1) of discussion and many sources. See also Kanamori 2003, pp. 1210–11. Raleigh, C. B.; Bennett, G.; Craig, H.; Hanks, T.; Molnar, P.; Nur, A.; Savage, J.; Scholz, C.; Turner, R.; Wu, F. (May 1977), "Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake", Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 236–272, Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236. By the Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Lomnitz (1994, Ch. 2) describes some of circumstances attending to the practice of seismology at that time; Turner 1993, pp. 456–458 has additional observations. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Lomnitz, Cinna (1994), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, New York: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0-471-57419-8, OCLC 647404423. Turner, Ralph H. (November 1993), "Reflections on the Past and Future of Social Research on Earthquake Warnings", International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 11 (3): 454–468, doi:10.1177/028072709301100314, S2CID 112795022.
Jackson 2004, p. 345. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help).
Kanamori 2003, p. 1211. Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Wang et al. 2006, p. 785. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
Hough 2010, p. 114. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
John Filson, deputy chief of the USGS Office of Earthquake Studies, quoted by Hough (2010, p. 116). Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
Hough 2010, p. 117. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
Gersony 1982, p. 416; Kerr 1981. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Kerr, Richard A. (20 February 1981), "Prediction of huge Peruvian quakes quashed", Science, 211 (4484): 808–809, Bibcode:1981Sci...211..808K, doi:10.1126/science.211.4484.808, PMID 17740381.
Geller (1997, §6) describes some of the coverage. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Bakun & McEvilly 1979; Bakun & Lindh 1985; Kerr 1984. Bakun, W. H.; McEvilly, T. V. (28 September 1979), "Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences", Science, 205 (4413): 1375–1377, Bibcode:1979Sci...205.1375B, doi:10.1126/science.205.4413.1375, PMID 17732330, S2CID 28922627. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434. Kerr, Richard A. (6 January 1984), "Stalking the Next Parkfield Earthquake", Science, 223 (4631): 36–38, Bibcode:1984Sci...223...36K, doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.36, PMID 17752978.
Kerr, R. A. (1984). "How to Catch an Earthquake". Science. 223 (4631): 38. doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.38. PMID 17752979.
Kerr 1984, "How to Catch an Earthquake"; Roeloffs & Langbein 1994. Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John (August 1994), "The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California", Reviews of Geophysics, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114.
Roeloffs & Langbein 1994, p. 316. Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John (August 1994), "The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California", Reviews of Geophysics, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114.
Quoted by Geller 1997, p. 440. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Kerr 2004; Bakun et al. 2005, Harris & Arrowsmith 2006, p. S5. Kerr, Richard A. (8 October 2004), "Parkfield Keeps Secrets After A Long-Awaited Quake", Science, 306 (5694): 206–7, doi:10.1126/science.306.5694.206, PMID 15472043, S2CID 32455927. Bakun, W. H.; Aagaard, B.; Dost, B.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Harris, R. A.; Ji, C.; Johnston, M. J. S.; Langbein, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Michael, A. J.; Murray, J. R.; Nadeau, R. M.; Reasenberg, P. A.; Reichle, M. S.; Roeloffs, E. A.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R. W.; Simpson, R. W.; Waldhauser, F. (13 October 2005), "Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake", Nature, 437 (7061): 969–974, Bibcode:2005Natur.437..969B, doi:10.1038/nature04067, PMID 16222291, S2CID 4389712. Harris, Ruth A.; Arrowsmith, J Ramon (September 2006), "Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake and the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S1 – S5, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S...1H, doi:10.1785/0120050831.
Kagan 1997. Kagan, Yan Y. (15 March 1997). "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment" (PDF). Tectonophysics (FTP). pp. 207–219. Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 117, Table 3. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Jackson & Kagan 1998. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418.
Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456.
Geller 1997, p. 436, §4.5: "VAN's 'predictions' never specify the windows, and never state an unambiguous expiration date. Thus VAN are not making earthquake predictions in the first place." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Jackson 1996b, p. 1363. Also: Rhoades & Evison (1996, p. 1373): No one "can confidently state, except in the most general terms, what the VAN hypothesis is, because the authors of it have nowhere presented a thorough formulation of it." Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. (27 May 1996), "The VAN earthquake predictions", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792.
Kagan & Jackson 1996, p. 1434. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996). "Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: comments and reflections" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters (FTP). pp. 1433–1436. Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1433K. doi:10.1029/95GL03786.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
Geller 1997, p. 436, Table 1. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 37. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x.
Hamada 1993 10 successful predictions out of 12 issued (defining success as those that occurred within 22 days of the prediction, within 100 km of the predicted epicenter and with a magnitude difference (predicted minus true) not greater than 0.7.) Hamada, Kazuo (30 August 1993), "Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates", Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 203–210, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..203H, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90073-S.
Shnirman, Schreider & Dmitrieva 1993; Nishizawa et al. 1993^{[full citation needed]} and Uyeda 1991^{[full citation needed]} Shnirman, M.; Schreider, S.; Dmitrieva, O. (1993), "Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987–1989." (PDF), Tectonophysics, 224 (1–3): 211–221, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224..211S, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90074-t.
"Table of contents". Geophysical Research Letters. 23 (11). 27 May 1996. doi:10.1002/grl.v23.11.; Aceves, Park & Strauss 1996. Aceves, Richard L.; Park, Stephen K.; Strauss, David J. (27 May 1996), "Statistical evaluation of the VAN Method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1425–1428, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1425A, doi:10.1029/96GL01478, ISSN 1944-8007.
Varotsos & Lazaridou 1996b; Varotsos, Eftaxias & Lazaridou 1996. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (27 May 1996b), "Reply to "The VAN earthquake predictions," by D. A. Rhoades and F. F. Evison", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1375–1378, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1375V, doi:10.1029/96GL00910, ISSN 1944-8007. Varotsos, P.; Eftaxias, K.; Lazaridou, M. (27 May 1996), "Reply I to "VAN: Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game" and "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN Case so far"", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1331–1334, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1331V, doi:10.1029/96GL01436, ISSN 1944-8007.
Varotsos et al. 2013 Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Lazaridou, M. S. (18 March 2013), "Seismic Electric Signals: An additional fact showing their physical interconnection with seismicity" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 589: 116–125, Bibcode:2013Tectp.589..116V, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2012.12.020.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Geller 1996a, p. 184 ("ranges not given, or vague"); Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32 ("large indetermination in the parameters"); Rhoades & Evison 1996, p. 1372 ("falls short"); Jackson 1996b, p. 1364 ("have never been fully specified"); Jackson & Kagan 1998, p. 573 ("much too vague"); Wyss & Allmann 1996, p. 1307 ("parameters not defined"). Stavrakakis & Drakopoulos (1996) discuss some specific cases in detail. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. (27 May 1996), "The VAN earthquake predictions", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Wyss, M.; Allmann, L. (1996), "Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with prediction in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: the VAN case", Geophysical Research Letters, 22 (11): 1307–1310, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1307W, doi:10.1029/95GL03548. Stavrakakis, George N.; Drakopoulos, John (27 May 1996), "The VAN method: Contradictory and misleading results since 1981", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1347–1350, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1347S, doi:10.1029/95gl03546.
Geller 1997, p. 436. Geller (1996a, pp. 183–189, §6) discusses this at length. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238
Telegram 39, issued 1 September 1988, in Varotsos & Lazaridou 1991, p. 337, Fig. 21. See figure 26 (p. 344) for a similar telegram. See also telegrams 32 and 41 (figures 15 and 16, pp. 115-116) in Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b. This same pair of predictions is apparently presented as Telegram 10 in Table 1, p. 50, of Varotsos et al. 1996a. Text from several telegrams is presented in Table 2 (p. 54), and faxes of a similar character. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76.
Varotsos et al. (1996a) they also cite Hamada's claim of a 99.8% confidence level. Geller (1996a, p. 214) finds that this "was based on the premise that 6 out of 12 telegrams" were in fact successful predictions, which is questioned. Kagan (1996, p. 1315) finds that in Shnirman et al. "several variables ... have been modified to achieve the result." Geller et al. (1998, p. 98) mention other "flaws such as overly generous crediting of successes, using strawman null hypotheses and failing to account for properly for a posteriori "tuning" of parameters." Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417 Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Kagan 1996, p. 1318. Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
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Anagnostopoulos 1998. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Apostolidis 2008; Uyeda & Kamogawa 2008; Chouliaras 2009; Uyeda 2010.^{[full citation needed]} Apostolidis, C. (10 February 2008), "Problepsi gia seismo 6 rixter", Ethnos (in Greek), Pegasus Publishing, archived from the original on 15 July 2016, retrieved 16 July 2016. Uyeda, Seiya; Kamogawa, Masashi (23 September 2008), "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece", Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 89 (39): 363, Bibcode:2008EOSTr..89..363U, doi:10.1029/2008EO390002, ISSN 2324-9250. Chouliaras, G. (2009), "Seismicity anomalies prior to 8 June 2008 earthquake in Western Greece", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 327–335, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-327-2009.
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Geller (1997, §4.4) cites several authors to say "it seems unreasonable to cite the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake as having fulfilled forecasts of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake on the San Andreas Fault." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
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Kerr 2009; Hall 2011, p. 267; Alexander 2010, p. 330. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Hall, Stephen S. (15 September 2011), "At Fault?" (PDF), Nature, 477 (7364): 264–269, Bibcode:2011Natur.477..264H, doi:10.1038/477264a, PMID 21921895, S2CID 205067216. Alexander, David E. (2010), "The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response", Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2 (4): 325–342, Bibcode:2010JNRPR...2..325A, doi:10.1080/19390459.2010.511450, S2CID 153641723.
Kerr 2009; Squires & Rayne 2009. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon (6 April 2009), "Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering", The Telegraph.
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Geller 1997 found "no obvious successes". Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Kagan 1997b, p. 505 "The results of efforts to develop earthquake prediction methods over the last 30 years have been disappointing: after many monographs and conferences and thousands of papers we are no closer to a working forecast than we were in the 1960s". Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
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Varotsos, Sarlis & Skordas 2020 Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S. (17 December 2020), "Self-organized criticality and earthquake predictability: A long-standing question in the light of natural time analysis", EPL (Europhysics Letters), 132 (2): 29001, Bibcode:2020EL....13229001V, doi:10.1209/0295-5075/132/29001, ISSN 1286-4854, S2CID 230670498.

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Geller 1997, p. 425. See also: Jackson 2004, p. 348: "The search for precursors has a checkered history, with no convincing successes." Zechar & Jordan 2008, p. 723: "The consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors...". ICEF 2009: "... no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H. (2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 172 (2): 715–724, Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (2 October 2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013.
Hammond 1973. Additional references in Geller 1997, §2.4. Hammond, Allen L. (23 May 1973), "Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight?", Science, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851, PMID 17789254. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324; Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Jackson & Kagan 1998; Stiros 1997, p. 478. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
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Raleigh et al. 1977, p. 266, quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Geller has a whole section (§4.1) of discussion and many sources. See also Kanamori 2003, pp. 1210–11. Raleigh, C. B.; Bennett, G.; Craig, H.; Hanks, T.; Molnar, P.; Nur, A.; Savage, J.; Scholz, C.; Turner, R.; Wu, F. (May 1977), "Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake", Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 236–272, Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236. By the Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, Bibcode:2003InGeo..81.1205K, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
Quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Lomnitz (1994, Ch. 2) describes some of circumstances attending to the practice of seismology at that time; Turner 1993, pp. 456–458 has additional observations. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Lomnitz, Cinna (1994), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, New York: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0-471-57419-8, OCLC 647404423. Turner, Ralph H. (November 1993), "Reflections on the Past and Future of Social Research on Earthquake Warnings", International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 11 (3): 454–468, doi:10.1177/028072709301100314, S2CID 112795022.
Geller (1997, §6) describes some of the coverage. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Quoted by Geller 1997, p. 440. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Geller 1997, p. 436, §4.5: "VAN's 'predictions' never specify the windows, and never state an unambiguous expiration date. Thus VAN are not making earthquake predictions in the first place." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Geller 1997, p. 436, Table 1. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Geller 1997, p. 436. Geller (1996a, pp. 183–189, §6) discusses this at length. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238
Stiros 1997, p. 482. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Geller (1997, §4.4) cites several authors to say "it seems unreasonable to cite the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake as having fulfilled forecasts of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake on the San Andreas Fault." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Geller 1997 found "no obvious successes". Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
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protezionecivile.it

Geller 1997, p. 425. See also: Jackson 2004, p. 348: "The search for precursors has a checkered history, with no convincing successes." Zechar & Jordan 2008, p. 723: "The consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors...". ICEF 2009: "... no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H. (2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 172 (2): 715–724, Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (2 October 2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013.

quakefinder.com

Park, Dalrymple & Larsen 2007, paragraphs 1 and 32. See also Johnston et al. 2006, p. S218 "no VAN-type SES observed" and Kappler, Morrison & Egbert 2010 "no effects found that can be reasonably characterized as precursors". Park, Stephen K.; Dalrymple, William; Larsen, Jimmy C. (2007), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Test of the electromagnetic precursor hypothesis", Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (B5): B05302, Bibcode:2007JGRB..112.5302P, doi:10.1029/2005JB004196. Johnston, M. J. S.; Sasai, Y.; Egbert, G. D.; Mueller, R. J. (September 2006), "Seismomagnetic Effects from the Long-Awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkf1eld Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S206 – S220, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.206J, doi:10.1785/0120050810, S2CID 129965769. Kappler, K. N.; Morrison, H. Frank; Egbert, G. D. (April 2010), "Long((en))term monitoring of ULF electromagnetic fields at Parkfield, California" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B4): B04406, Bibcode:2010JGRB..115.4406K, doi:10.1029/2009JB006421.

quantamagazine.org

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Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Gruszow et al. 1996, p. 2027. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Gruszow, S.; Rossignol, J. C.; Tzanis, A.; Le Mouël, J. L. (1 August 1996), "Identification and analysis of electromagnetic signals in Greece: the case of the Kozani earthquake VAN prediction", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (16): 2025–2028, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.2025G, doi:10.1029/96GL02170.
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sciencedirect.com

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sciencenet.cn

image.sciencenet.cn

According to Wang et al. (2006, p. 762) foreshocks were widely understood to precede a large earthquake, "which may explain why various [local authorities] made their own evacuation decisions". Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.
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seismosoc.org

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semanticscholar.org

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Kagan (1997b, §2.1) says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted …" Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Kagan, Yan Y.; Knopoff, Leon (19 June 1987), "Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction", Science, 236 (4808): 1563–1567, Bibcode:1987Sci...236.1563K, doi:10.1126/science.236.4808.1563, PMID 17835741, S2CID 12946111.
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E.g.: Davies 1975; Whitham et al. 1976, p. 265; Hammond 1976; Ward 1978; Kerr 1979, p. 543; Allen 1982, p. S332; Rikitake 1982; Zoback 1983; Ludwin 2001; Jackson 2004, pp. 335, 344; ICEF 2011, p. 328. Davies, D. (27 November 1975), "Earthquake prediction in China", Nature, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0, S2CID 4266855. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Hammond, Allen L. (7 May 1976), "Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California", Science, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538, PMID 17745640. Ward, Peter L. (1978), "Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Geophysical predictions, National Academy of Sciences. Kerr, Richard A. (2 November 1979), "Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane", Science, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542, PMID 17759414. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1982), "Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72 (6B): S331–S335, Bibcode:1982BuSSA..72S.331A, doi:10.1785/BSSA07206B0331. Rikitake, Tsuneji (1982), Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications. Zoback, Mark D. (21 October 1983), "Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]", Science, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319, PMID 17734830. Ludwin, Ruth (May 2001), "Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Washington Geology, 28 (3): 27–28. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Quoted in Geller (1997, p. 434). Lomnitz (1994, Ch. 2) describes some of circumstances attending to the practice of seismology at that time; Turner 1993, pp. 456–458 has additional observations. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Lomnitz, Cinna (1994), Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, New York: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0-471-57419-8, OCLC 647404423. Turner, Ralph H. (November 1993), "Reflections on the Past and Future of Social Research on Earthquake Warnings", International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 11 (3): 454–468, doi:10.1177/028072709301100314, S2CID 112795022.
Bakun & McEvilly 1979; Bakun & Lindh 1985; Kerr 1984. Bakun, W. H.; McEvilly, T. V. (28 September 1979), "Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences", Science, 205 (4413): 1375–1377, Bibcode:1979Sci...205.1375B, doi:10.1126/science.205.4413.1375, PMID 17732330, S2CID 28922627. Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), "The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment", Science, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619, PMID 17739363, S2CID 40899434. Kerr, Richard A. (6 January 1984), "Stalking the Next Parkfield Earthquake", Science, 223 (4631): 36–38, Bibcode:1984Sci...223...36K, doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.36, PMID 17752978.
Kerr, R. A. (1984). "How to Catch an Earthquake". Science. 223 (4631): 38. doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.38. PMID 17752979.
Kerr 2004; Bakun et al. 2005, Harris & Arrowsmith 2006, p. S5. Kerr, Richard A. (8 October 2004), "Parkfield Keeps Secrets After A Long-Awaited Quake", Science, 306 (5694): 206–7, doi:10.1126/science.306.5694.206, PMID 15472043, S2CID 32455927. Bakun, W. H.; Aagaard, B.; Dost, B.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Harris, R. A.; Ji, C.; Johnston, M. J. S.; Langbein, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Michael, A. J.; Murray, J. R.; Nadeau, R. M.; Reasenberg, P. A.; Reichle, M. S.; Roeloffs, E. A.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R. W.; Simpson, R. W.; Waldhauser, F. (13 October 2005), "Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake", Nature, 437 (7061): 969–974, Bibcode:2005Natur.437..969B, doi:10.1038/nature04067, PMID 16222291, S2CID 4389712. Harris, Ruth A.; Arrowsmith, J Ramon (September 2006), "Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake and the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S1 – S5, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S...1H, doi:10.1785/0120050831.
Donges et al. 2016 Donges, J.F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J.F.; Donner, R.V. (2016), "Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series", The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 225 (3): 471–487, arXiv:1508.03534, doi:10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y, ISSN 1951-6355, S2CID 88520803
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Stiros 1997, p. 482. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Garwin 1989. Garwin, Laura (26 October 1989), "A successful prediction?", Nature, 341 (6244): 677, Bibcode:1989Natur.341..677G, doi:10.1038/341677a0, S2CID 658586.
e.g., ICEF 2011, p. 327. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
ICEF 2011, p. 320. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Alexander 2010, p. 326. Alexander, David E. (2010), "The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response", Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2 (4): 325–342, Bibcode:2010JNRPR...2..325A, doi:10.1080/19390459.2010.511450, S2CID 153641723.
Hall 2011, p. 267. Hall, Stephen S. (15 September 2011), "At Fault?" (PDF), Nature, 477 (7364): 264–269, Bibcode:2011Natur.477..264H, doi:10.1038/477264a, PMID 21921895, S2CID 205067216.
Kerr 2009. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897.
ICEF (2011, p. 323) alludes to predictions made on 17 February and 10 March. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Kerr 2009; Hall 2011, p. 267; Alexander 2010, p. 330. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Hall, Stephen S. (15 September 2011), "At Fault?" (PDF), Nature, 477 (7364): 264–269, Bibcode:2011Natur.477..264H, doi:10.1038/477264a, PMID 21921895, S2CID 205067216. Alexander, David E. (2010), "The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response", Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2 (4): 325–342, Bibcode:2010JNRPR...2..325A, doi:10.1080/19390459.2010.511450, S2CID 153641723.
Kerr 2009; Squires & Rayne 2009. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon (6 April 2009), "Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering", The Telegraph.
Dollar 2010; Kerr 2009. Dollar, John (5 April 2010), "The man who predicted an earthquake", The Guardian. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897.
ICEF 2011, pp. 323, 335. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228.
Sibson 1986. Sibson, R. H. (1986), "Earthquakes and Lineament Infrastructure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 317 (1539): 63–79, Bibcode:1986RSPTA.317...63S, doi:10.1098/rsta.1986.0025, S2CID 122934024.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616; Kagan 1997b, p. 517. See also Kagan 1997b, p. 520, Vidale 1996 and especially Geller 1997, §9.1, "Chaos, SOC, and predictability". Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Vidale, John E. (16 February 1996), "Do Big and Little Earthquakes Start Differently?", Science, 271 (5251): 953–954, Bibcode:1996Sci...271..953V, doi:10.1126/science.271.5251.953, S2CID 129107396. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}
Varotsos, Sarlis & Skordas 2020 Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S. (17 December 2020), "Self-organized criticality and earthquake predictability: A long-standing question in the light of natural time analysis", EPL (Europhysics Letters), 132 (2): 29001, Bibcode:2020EL....13229001V, doi:10.1209/0295-5075/132/29001, ISSN 1286-4854, S2CID 230670498.
E.g., Sykes, Shaw & Scholz 1999 and Evison 1999. Sykes, Lynn R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Scholz, Christopher H. (1999), "Rethinking Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155 (2–4): 207–232, Bibcode:1999PApGe.155..207S, doi:10.1007/s000240050263, S2CID 11412679. Evison, Frank (October 1999), "On the existence of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Annali di Geofisica, 42 (5): 763–770.
ICEF 2011, p. 360. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

telegraph.co.uk

Squires & Rayne 2009; McIntyre 2009. Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon (6 April 2009), "Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering", The Telegraph. McIntyre, Jamie (April–May 2009), "When Outrage Trumps Science: Italian quake prediction produces tabloid tremors", American Journalism Review.
Kerr 2009; Squires & Rayne 2009. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897. Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon (6 April 2009), "Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering", The Telegraph.

tetontectonics.org

E.g.: Davies 1975; Whitham et al. 1976, p. 265; Hammond 1976; Ward 1978; Kerr 1979, p. 543; Allen 1982, p. S332; Rikitake 1982; Zoback 1983; Ludwin 2001; Jackson 2004, pp. 335, 344; ICEF 2011, p. 328. Davies, D. (27 November 1975), "Earthquake prediction in China", Nature, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0, S2CID 4266855. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Hammond, Allen L. (7 May 1976), "Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California", Science, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538, PMID 17745640. Ward, Peter L. (1978), "Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Geophysical predictions, National Academy of Sciences. Kerr, Richard A. (2 November 1979), "Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane", Science, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542, PMID 17759414. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1982), "Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72 (6B): S331–S335, Bibcode:1982BuSSA..72S.331A, doi:10.1785/BSSA07206B0331. Rikitake, Tsuneji (1982), Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications. Zoback, Mark D. (21 October 1983), "Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]", Science, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319, PMID 17734830. Ludwin, Ruth (May 2001), "Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Washington Geology, 28 (3): 27–28. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

theguardian.com

Dollar 2010. Dollar, John (5 April 2010), "The man who predicted an earthquake", The Guardian.
Dollar 2010; Kerr 2009. Dollar, John (5 April 2010), "The man who predicted an earthquake", The Guardian. Kerr, Richard A. (17 April 2009), "After the Quake, in Search of the Science – or Even a Good Prediction", Science, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322, PMID 19372400, S2CID 206585897.

ucla.edu

moho.ess.ucla.edu

Kagan (1997b, §2.1) says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted …" Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Kagan, Yan Y.; Knopoff, Leon (19 June 1987), "Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction", Science, 236 (4808): 1563–1567, Bibcode:1987Sci...236.1563K, doi:10.1126/science.236.4808.1563, PMID 17835741, S2CID 12946111.
Of course these were not the only earthquakes in this period. The attentive reader will recall that, in seismically active areas, earthquakes of some magnitude happen fairly constantly. The "Parkfield earthquakes" are either the ones noted in the historical record, or were selected from the instrumental record on the basis of location and magnitude. Jackson & Kagan (2006, p. S399) and Kagan (1997, pp. 211–212, 213) argue that the selection parameters can bias the statistics, and that sequences of four or six quakes, with different recurrence intervals, are also plausible. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Kagan, Yan Y. (15 March 1997). "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment" (PDF). Tectonophysics (FTP). pp. 207–219. Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7.^{[dead ftp link]} (To view documents see Help:FTP).
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616, following Allen 1976, p. 2070, who in turn followed Wood & Gutenberg 1935. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1976), "Responsibilities in earthquake prediction", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66 (6): 2069–2074, Bibcode:1976BuSSA..66.2069A, doi:10.1785/BSSA0660062069. Wood, H. O.; Gutenberg, B. (6 September 1935), "Earthquake prediction", Science, 82 (2123): 219–320, Bibcode:1935Sci....82..219W, doi:10.1126/science.82.2123.219, PMID 17818812.
Kagan 1997b, p. 507. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, p. 427, §2.3; Console 2001, p. 261. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
Kagan 1997b; Geller 1997; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Nomicos 1981, described by Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32, and Kagan 1997b, p. 512, §3.3.1. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K. (1981), "Seven-hour precursors to earthquakes determined from telluric currents", Praktika of the Academy of Athens, 56: 417–433. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
The proceedings were published as A Critical Review of VAN (Lighthill 1996). See Jackson & Kagan (1998) for a summary critique. Lighthill, James, ed. (1996), A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals, London: World Scientific Publishing, ISBN 978-981-02-2670-1. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418.
Geller et al. 1998; Anagnostopoulos 1998. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324; Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Jackson & Kagan 1998; Stiros 1997, p. 478. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S408 say the claim of quasi-periodicity is "baseless". Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Jackson & Kagan 2006. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 420; Stein, Friedrich & Newman 2005; Jackson & Kagan 2006; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.2, and references there; Kagan, Jackson & Geller 2012; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew (July–August 2005), "Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 76 (4): 432–436, Bibcode:2005SeiRL..76..432S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J. (November–December 2012), "Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P", Seismological Research Letters, 83 (6): 951–953, arXiv:1207.4836, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, doi:10.1785/0220120107, S2CID 88513151. Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Scholz 2002, p. 284, §5.3.3; Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; Jackson & Kagan 2006, p. S404. Scholz, Christopher H. (2002), The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (2nd ed.), Cambridge Univ. Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979), "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries", Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211, S2CID 129377355. Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210.
Geller et al. 1997. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228.
Jackson & Kagan 1998. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Geller 1996a, p. 184 ("ranges not given, or vague"); Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32 ("large indetermination in the parameters"); Rhoades & Evison 1996, p. 1372 ("falls short"); Jackson 1996b, p. 1364 ("have never been fully specified"); Jackson & Kagan 1998, p. 573 ("much too vague"); Wyss & Allmann 1996, p. 1307 ("parameters not defined"). Stavrakakis & Drakopoulos (1996) discuss some specific cases in detail. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. (27 May 1996), "The VAN earthquake predictions", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Wyss, M.; Allmann, L. (1996), "Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with prediction in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: the VAN case", Geophysical Research Letters, 22 (11): 1307–1310, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1307W, doi:10.1029/95GL03548. Stavrakakis, George N.; Drakopoulos, John (27 May 1996), "The VAN method: Contradictory and misleading results since 1981", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1347–1350, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1347S, doi:10.1029/95gl03546.
Varotsos et al. (1996a) they also cite Hamada's claim of a 99.8% confidence level. Geller (1996a, p. 214) finds that this "was based on the premise that 6 out of 12 telegrams" were in fact successful predictions, which is questioned. Kagan (1996, p. 1315) finds that in Shnirman et al. "several variables ... have been modified to achieve the result." Geller et al. (1998, p. 98) mention other "flaws such as overly generous crediting of successes, using strawman null hypotheses and failing to account for properly for a posteriori "tuning" of parameters." Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417 Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Kagan 1996, p. 1318. Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Anagnostopoulos 1998. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Kagan 1997b, p. 505 "The results of efforts to develop earthquake prediction methods over the last 30 years have been disappointing: after many monographs and conferences and thousands of papers we are no closer to a working forecast than we were in the 1960s". Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228.
Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616; Kagan 1997b, p. 517. See also Kagan 1997b, p. 520, Vidale 1996 and especially Geller 1997, §9.1, "Chaos, SOC, and predictability". Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, S2CID 123516228. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Vidale, John E. (16 February 1996), "Do Big and Little Earthquakes Start Differently?", Science, 271 (5251): 953–954, Bibcode:1996Sci...271..953V, doi:10.1126/science.271.5251.953, S2CID 129107396. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]}

udel.edu

dspace.udel.edu

Tierney 1993, p. 11. Tierney, Kathleen J. (1993), "Making sense of collective preoccupations: lessons from research on the Iben Browning earthquake prediction." (PDF), in Platt, Gerald M.; Gordon, Chad (eds.), Self, Collective Behavior, and Society: Essays Honoring the Contributions of Ralph H. Turner, JAI Press, ISBN 978-1-55938-755-2.

unb.ca

journals.hil.unb.ca

E.g.: Davies 1975; Whitham et al. 1976, p. 265; Hammond 1976; Ward 1978; Kerr 1979, p. 543; Allen 1982, p. S332; Rikitake 1982; Zoback 1983; Ludwin 2001; Jackson 2004, pp. 335, 344; ICEF 2011, p. 328. Davies, D. (27 November 1975), "Earthquake prediction in China", Nature, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0, S2CID 4266855. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Hammond, Allen L. (7 May 1976), "Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California", Science, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538, PMID 17745640. Ward, Peter L. (1978), "Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Geophysical predictions, National Academy of Sciences. Kerr, Richard A. (2 November 1979), "Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane", Science, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542, PMID 17759414. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1982), "Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72 (6B): S331–S335, Bibcode:1982BuSSA..72S.331A, doi:10.1785/BSSA07206B0331. Rikitake, Tsuneji (1982), Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications. Zoback, Mark D. (21 October 1983), "Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]", Science, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319, PMID 17734830. Ludwin, Ruth (May 2001), "Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Washington Geology, 28 (3): 27–28. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
Whitham et al. (1976, p. 266) provide a brief report. Raleigh et al. (1977) has a fuller account. Wang et al. (2006, p. 779), after careful examination of the records, set the death toll at 2,041. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Raleigh, C. B.; Bennett, G.; Craig, H.; Hanks, T.; Molnar, P.; Nur, A.; Savage, J.; Scholz, C.; Turner, R.; Wu, F. (May 1977), "Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake", Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 58 (5): 236–272, Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236. By the Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong (June 2006), "Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (3): 757–795, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191.

unibo.it

gaspy.df.unibo.it

Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Luen & Stark 2008, p. 302. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B. (2008), "Testing earthquake predictions", Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, vol. 2, pp. 302–315, arXiv:0805.3032, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, doi:10.1214/193940307000000509, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, S2CID 12016809.
Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Nomicos 1981, described by Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32, and Kagan 1997b, p. 512, §3.3.1. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K. (1981), "Seven-hour precursors to earthquakes determined from telluric currents", Praktika of the Academy of Athens, 56: 417–433. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324; Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Jackson & Kagan 1998; Stiros 1997, p. 478. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Stiros, Stathis C. (December 1997), "Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 478–484, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..478S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x, S2CID 129578066^{[dead link]}.
Jackson 1996b, p. 1365; Mulargia & Gasperini 1996a, p. 1324. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (27 May 1996a), "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1323–1326, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 37. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x.
Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32; Geller 1996a, p. 184 ("ranges not given, or vague"); Mulargia & Gasperini 1992, p. 32 ("large indetermination in the parameters"); Rhoades & Evison 1996, p. 1372 ("falls short"); Jackson 1996b, p. 1364 ("have never been fully specified"); Jackson & Kagan 1998, p. 573 ("much too vague"); Wyss & Allmann 1996, p. 1307 ("parameters not defined"). Stavrakakis & Drakopoulos (1996) discuss some specific cases in detail. Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1): 32–44, Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x. Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. (27 May 1996), "The VAN earthquake predictions", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792. Jackson, David D. (27 May 1996b), "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (24 November 1998), "VAN method lacks validity" (PDF), Eos, 79 (47): 573–579, Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418. Wyss, M.; Allmann, L. (1996), "Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with prediction in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: the VAN case", Geophysical Research Letters, 22 (11): 1307–1310, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1307W, doi:10.1029/95GL03548. Stavrakakis, George N.; Drakopoulos, John (27 May 1996), "The VAN method: Contradictory and misleading results since 1981", Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1347–1350, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1347S, doi:10.1029/95gl03546.

uoa.gr

physlab.phys.uoa.gr

Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 100. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 120. Italicization from the original. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 117, Table 3; Varotsos et al. 1986; Varotsos & Lazaridou 1991, p. 341, Table 3; Varotsos et al. 1996a, p. 55, Table 3. These are examined in more detail in 1983–1995: Greece (VAN). Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K.; Lazaridou, M. (1986), "Earthquake prediction and electric signals", Nature, 322 (6075): 120, Bibcode:1986Natur.322..120V, doi:10.1038/322120a0, S2CID 4304127. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76.
Varotsos, Sarlis & Skordas 2003a Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S. (26 February 2003a), "Long-range correlations in the electric signals that precede rupture: Further investigations" (PDF), Physical Review E, 67 (2): 021109, Bibcode:2003PhRvE..67b1109V, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.67.021109, PMID 12636655.
Varotsos, Sarlis & Skordas 2003b Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S. (23 September 2003b), "Attempt to distinguish electric signals of a dichotomous nature" (PDF), Physical Review E, 68 (3): 031106, Bibcode:2003PhRvE..68c1106V, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.68.031106, PMID 14524749.
Varotsos, Sarlis & Skordas 2001 Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S. (22 November 2001), "Spatio-temporal complexity aspects on the interrelation between seismic electric signals and seismicity" (PDF), Praktika of the Academy of Athens, 76: 294–321.
Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b, p. 117, Table 3. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X.
Varotsos et al. 2013 Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Lazaridou, M. S. (18 March 2013), "Seismic Electric Signals: An additional fact showing their physical interconnection with seismicity" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 589: 116–125, Bibcode:2013Tectp.589..116V, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2012.12.020.
Telegram 39, issued 1 September 1988, in Varotsos & Lazaridou 1991, p. 337, Fig. 21. See figure 26 (p. 344) for a similar telegram. See also telegrams 32 and 41 (figures 15 and 16, pp. 115-116) in Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984b. This same pair of predictions is apparently presented as Telegram 10 in Table 1, p. 50, of Varotsos et al. 1996a. Text from several telegrams is presented in Table 2 (p. 54), and faxes of a similar character. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. (1991), "Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals", Tectonophysics, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2. Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K. (December 1984b), "Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 110 (1): 99–125, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76.

upo.es

Schwartz & Coppersmith 1984; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.2. Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J. (10 July 1984), "Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones", Journal of Geophysical Research, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 420; Stein, Friedrich & Newman 2005; Jackson & Kagan 2006; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.2, and references there; Kagan, Jackson & Geller 2012; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew (July–August 2005), "Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 76 (4): 432–436, Bibcode:2005SeiRL..76..432S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J. (November–December 2012), "Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P", Seismological Research Letters, 83 (6): 951–953, arXiv:1207.4836, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, doi:10.1785/0220120107, S2CID 88513151. Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
See details in Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.4. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.
Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.1. Hough 2010b, chapter 12, provides a good description. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, p. 93, §2.1. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019.

usaid.gov

pdf.usaid.gov

Gersony 1982, p. 231. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report.
Gersony 1982, p. 247, document 85. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report.
Gersony 1982, p. 248, document 86; Roberts 1983, p. 151. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Roberts, J.L. (1983). "Notes on procedure for conveying earthquake forecasts with special reference to the Peru predictions for 1980–1981" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDPRO.
Gersony 1982, p. 201, document 146. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report.
Gersony 1982, p. 343, document 116; Roberts 1983, p. 152. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Roberts, J.L. (1983). "Notes on procedure for conveying earthquake forecasts with special reference to the Peru predictions for 1980–1981" (PDF). Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories. Geneva, 12–15 October 1982. UNDPRO.
Gersony 1982, p. 422, document 147, U.S. State Dept. cablegram. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report.
Gersony 1982, p. 416; Kerr 1981. Gersony, Robert, ed. (October 1982), "Volume XIII, Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions. Book B, Reports, Memoranda, Correspondence and Other Communication – Chronological Collection 1981–1982" (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report. Kerr, Richard A. (20 February 1981), "Prediction of huge Peruvian quakes quashed", Science, 211 (4484): 808–809, Bibcode:1981Sci...211..808K, doi:10.1126/science.211.4484.808, PMID 17740381.

usc.edu

earth.usc.edu

Geller 1997, p. 425. See also: Jackson 2004, p. 348: "The search for precursors has a checkered history, with no convincing successes." Zechar & Jordan 2008, p. 723: "The consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors...". ICEF 2009: "... no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H. (2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 172 (2): 715–724, Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (2 October 2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013.
Zechar 2008; Hough 2010b, p. 145. Zechar, J. Douglas (August 2008). Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction (PDF) (PhD dissertation). Univ. of Southern California. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 October 2013. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
Zechar 2008, p. 7. See also p. 26. Zechar, J. Douglas (August 2008). Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction (PDF) (PhD dissertation). Univ. of Southern California. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 October 2013.

usgs.gov

pubs.usgs.gov

Spence et al. 1993 (USGS Circular 1083) is the most comprehensive, and most thorough, study of the Browning prediction, and appears to be the main source of most other reports. In the following notes, where an item is found in this document the pdf pagination is shown in brackets. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Field et al. 2008. Field; et al. (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities) (2008). "The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2)" (PDF). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 99 (4) (published 2009): 2053–2107. Bibcode:2009BuSSA..99.2053F. doi:10.1785/0120080049. Open-File Report 2007-1437.. Also published as California Geological Survey Special Report 203.
Bakun et al. 1987. Bakun, W.H.; Breckenridge, K.S.; Bredehoeft, J.; Burford, R.O.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Jones, L.; Lindh, A.G.; Mortensen, C.; Mueller, R. J.; Poley, C. M.; Roeloffs, E.; Schulz, S.; Segall, P.; Thatcher, W. (1 May 1987). Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Scenarios and Response Plans (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 87-192.
Harris 1998, p. B18. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Kerr 1989; Harris 1998. Kerr, Richard A. (27 October 1989), "Reading the Future in Loma Prieta", Science, 246 (4929): 436–439, Bibcode:1989Sci...246..436K, doi:10.1126/science.246.4929.436, PMID 17788681. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Harris 1998, p. B22. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Harris 1998, p. B5, Table 1. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Harris 1998, pp. B10–B11. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Harris 1998, p. B10, and figure 4, p. B12. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Harris 1998, p. B11, figure 5. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
Harris 1998, pp. B21–B22. Harris, Ruth A. (1998). The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Forecasts (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Open-File Report 1550-B..
AHWG 1990, p. 10 (Spence et al. 1993, p. 54 [62]). The Ad Hoc Working Group on the December 2–3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction [AHWG] (18 October 1990), Evaluation of the December 2–3, 1990, New Madrid Seismic Zone Prediction. Reproduced in Spence et al. (1993), pp. 45–66 [53–74], Appendix B. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, ^† footnote, p. 4 [12] "Browning preferred the term projection, which he defined as determining the time of a future event based on calculation. He considered 'prediction' to be akin to tea-leaf reading or other forms of psychic foretelling." See also Browning's own comment on p. 36 [44]. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, p. 39 [47]. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, pp. 9–11 [17–19], and see various documents in Appendix A, including The Browning Newsletter for 21 November 1989 (p. 26 [34]). Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
AHWG 1990, p. III (Spence et al. 1993, p. 47 [55]). The Ad Hoc Working Group on the December 2–3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction [AHWG] (18 October 1990), Evaluation of the December 2–3, 1990, New Madrid Seismic Zone Prediction. Reproduced in Spence et al. (1993), pp. 45–66 [53–74], Appendix B. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
AHWG 1990, p. 30 (Spence et al. 1993, p. 64 [72]). The Ad Hoc Working Group on the December 2–3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction [AHWG] (18 October 1990), Evaluation of the December 2–3, 1990, New Madrid Seismic Zone Prediction. Reproduced in Spence et al. (1993), pp. 45–66 [53–74], Appendix B. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, p. 13 [21] Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, p. 29 [37]. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, throughout. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..
Spence et al. 1993, pp. 4 [12], 40 [48]. Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen (1993). Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF) (Report). United States Geological Survey. Circular 1083..

pasadena.wr.usgs.gov

Hough 2010, pp. 131–133; Thomas, Love & Johnston 2009. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113. Thomas, J. N.; Love, J. J.; Johnston, M. J. S. (2009), "On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake", Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 173 (3–4): 207–215, Bibcode:2009PEPI..173..207T, doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2008.11.014.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, par. 6. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, §4 show how suitable selection of parameters shows "DMR": Decelerating Moment Release. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Hardebeck, Felzer & Michael 2008, par. 1, 73. Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J. (August 2008), "Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (B08130): 8310, Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
Hough 2010, p. 114. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
John Filson, deputy chief of the USGS Office of Earthquake Studies, quoted by Hough (2010, p. 116). Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.
Hough 2010, p. 117. Hough, Susan E. (January–February 2010), "A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 81 (1): 113–117, Bibcode:2010SeiRL..81..113H, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113.

usgs.gov

"Animals & Earthquake Prediction | U.S. Geological Survey". United States Geological Survey.

pubs.er.usgs.gov

Kossobokov et al. 1999. Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H. (1999). "Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992–1997". Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors. 111 (3–4): 187–196. Bibcode:1999PEPI..111..187K. doi:10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00159-9.

wa.gov

dnr.wa.gov

E.g.: Davies 1975; Whitham et al. 1976, p. 265; Hammond 1976; Ward 1978; Kerr 1979, p. 543; Allen 1982, p. S332; Rikitake 1982; Zoback 1983; Ludwin 2001; Jackson 2004, pp. 335, 344; ICEF 2011, p. 328. Davies, D. (27 November 1975), "Earthquake prediction in China", Nature, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0, S2CID 4266855. Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G (1976), "Earthquake Prediction in China", Geoscience Canada, 3 (4): 96, 263–268. Hammond, Allen L. (7 May 1976), "Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California", Science, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538, PMID 17745640. Ward, Peter L. (1978), "Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Geophysical predictions, National Academy of Sciences. Kerr, Richard A. (2 November 1979), "Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane", Science, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542, PMID 17759414. Allen, Clarence R. (December 1982), "Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72 (6B): S331–S335, Bibcode:1982BuSSA..72S.331A, doi:10.1785/BSSA07206B0331. Rikitake, Tsuneji (1982), Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications. Zoback, Mark D. (21 October 1983), "Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]", Science, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319, PMID 17734830. Ludwin, Ruth (May 2001), "Earthquake Prediction" (PDF), Washington Geology, 28 (3): 27–28. Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.

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Kagan 1997b; Geller 1997; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
Geller 1997, p. 425. See also: Jackson 2004, p. 348: "The search for precursors has a checkered history, with no convincing successes." Zechar & Jordan 2008, p. 723: "The consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors...". ICEF 2009: "... no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors." Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x^{[dead link]} Jackson, David D. (2004). "Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting". In Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.). The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. Geophysical Monograph Series. Vol. 150. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union. pp. 335–348. Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J. doi:10.1029/150GM26. ISBN 0-87590-415-7. {{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help). Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H. (2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 172 (2): 715–724, Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (2 October 2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013.
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Main et al. 2012, pp. 220–221, 226; see also Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah (August 2012), "The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability", Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 367 (1): 215–230, Bibcode:2012GSLSP.367..215M, doi:10.1144/SP367.15, hdl:20.500.11820/9d1fbd67-7faa-4adc-8c6f-d742fea1524c, S2CID 73524237. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Lindh, Lockner & Lee 1978. Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K. (June 1978), "Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 68 (3): 721–734, archived from the original on 24 February 2013.
Geller et al. 1998; Anagnostopoulos 1998. Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 420; Stein, Friedrich & Newman 2005; Jackson & Kagan 2006; Tiampo & Shcherbakov 2012, §2.2, and references there; Kagan, Jackson & Geller 2012; Main 1999. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 96 (B13): 21, 419–21, 431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210. Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew (July–August 2005), "Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah" (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, 76 (4): 432–436, Bibcode:2005SeiRL..76..432S, doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432. Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (September 2006), "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future" (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (4B): S397–S409, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821. Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert (2012), "Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 522–523: 89–121, Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J. (November–December 2012), "Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P", Seismological Research Letters, 83 (6): 951–953, arXiv:1207.4836, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, doi:10.1785/0220120107, S2CID 88513151. Main, Ian (25 February 1999). "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?". Nature. Archived from the original on 8 May 2001.
CEPEC 2004a. California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (2 March 2004a), Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services (PDF), archived from the original (PDF) on 29 April 2013.
Zechar 2008; Hough 2010b, p. 145. Zechar, J. Douglas (August 2008). Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction (PDF) (PhD dissertation). Univ. of Southern California. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 October 2013. Hough, Susan E. (2010b), Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9.
Zechar 2008, p. 7. See also p. 26. Zechar, J. Douglas (August 2008). Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction (PDF) (PhD dissertation). Univ. of Southern California. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 October 2013.
Varotsos et al. (1996a) they also cite Hamada's claim of a 99.8% confidence level. Geller (1996a, p. 214) finds that this "was based on the premise that 6 out of 12 telegrams" were in fact successful predictions, which is questioned. Kagan (1996, p. 1315) finds that in Shnirman et al. "several variables ... have been modified to achieve the result." Geller et al. (1998, p. 98) mention other "flaws such as overly generous crediting of successes, using strawman null hypotheses and failing to account for properly for a posteriori "tuning" of parameters." Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 29–76. Geller, R. J. (1996a), "Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals", in Lighthill, J. (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific, pp. 155–238 Kagan, Y. Y. (27 May 1996), "VAN earthquake predictions – an attempt at statistical evaluation" (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 23 (11): 1315–1318, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417 Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 95–96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014.
GR Reporter (2011) "From its very appearance in the early 1990s until today, the VAN group is the subject of sharp criticism from Greek seismologists"; Chouliaras & Stavrakakis (1999): "panic overtook the general population" (Prigos, 1993). Ohshansky & Geller (2003, p. 318): "causing widespread unrest and a sharp increase in tranquilizer drugs" (Athens, 1999). Papadopoulos (2010): "great social uneasiness" (Patras, 2008). Anagnostopoulos (1998, p. 96): "often caused widespread rumors, confusion and anxiety in Greece". ICEF (2011, p. 352): issuance over the years of "hundreds" of statements "causing considerable concern among the Greek population." GR Reporter (8 August 2011). "Scientists from the VAN group are warning for a strong earthquake of 6 on the Richter scale". GR Reporter. Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. (1999), "Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements." (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 80 (19): 216, Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80..216C, doi:10.1029/99EO00166. Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J. (2003), "Earthquake prediction and public policy", in Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol. 32, Kluwer, pp. 284–329, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (4 May 2010), "Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece"", Eos, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003. Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A. (June 1998), "Letter" (PDF), Physics Today, 51 (6): 96, Bibcode:1998PhT....51f..15S, doi:10.1063/1.882266, archived from the original (PDF) on 23 March 2014. International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) (30 May 2011). "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization". Annals of Geophysics. 54 (4): 315–391. doi:10.4401/ag-5350. hdl:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82. S2CID 129825964.
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Apostolidis 2008; Uyeda & Kamogawa 2008; Chouliaras 2009; Uyeda 2010.^{[full citation needed]} Apostolidis, C. (10 February 2008), "Problepsi gia seismo 6 rixter", Ethnos (in Greek), Pegasus Publishing, archived from the original on 15 July 2016, retrieved 16 July 2016. Uyeda, Seiya; Kamogawa, Masashi (23 September 2008), "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece", Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 89 (39): 363, Bibcode:2008EOSTr..89..363U, doi:10.1029/2008EO390002, ISSN 2324-9250. Chouliaras, G. (2009), "Seismicity anomalies prior to 8 June 2008 earthquake in Western Greece", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 327–335, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-327-2009.
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Apostolidis 2008; Uyeda & Kamogawa 2008; Chouliaras 2009; Uyeda 2010.^{[full citation needed]} Apostolidis, C. (10 February 2008), "Problepsi gia seismo 6 rixter", Ethnos (in Greek), Pegasus Publishing, archived from the original on 15 July 2016, retrieved 16 July 2016. Uyeda, Seiya; Kamogawa, Masashi (23 September 2008), "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece", Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 89 (39): 363, Bibcode:2008EOSTr..89..363U, doi:10.1029/2008EO390002, ISSN 2324-9250. Chouliaras, G. (2009), "Seismicity anomalies prior to 8 June 2008 earthquake in Western Greece", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 327–335, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-327-2009.
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yimg.com

xa.yimg.com

Rikitake 1979, p. 294. Cicerone, Ebel & Britton 2009 has a more recent compilation Rikitake, Tsuneji (1 May 1979), "Classification of earthquake precursors", Tectonophysics, 54 (3–4): 293–309, Bibcode:1979Tectp..54..293R, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(79)90372-X. Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James (25 October 2009), "A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 476 (3–4): 371–396, Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.
Cicerone, Ebel & Britton 2009, p. 382. Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James (25 October 2009), "A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors" (PDF), Tectonophysics, 476 (3–4): 371–396, Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.

zenodo.org

Freund 2000. Freund, Friedemann (10 May 2000), "Time-resolved study of charge generation and propagation in igneous rocks", Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 105 (B5): 11001–11019, Bibcode:2000JGR...10511001F, doi:10.1029/1999JB900423, ISSN 2156-2202.
Kerr 1984, "How to Catch an Earthquake"; Roeloffs & Langbein 1994. Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John (August 1994), "The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California", Reviews of Geophysics, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114.
Roeloffs & Langbein 1994, p. 316. Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John (August 1994), "The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California", Reviews of Geophysics, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114.