"We discount the chances of any party at 100/1 or bigger. The reverse of tweak 1 applies here. Almost all of these probably have effectively zero chance. Why don’t we just make them a bigger price? We don’t think we’ll take much extra money, certainly not enough to compensate us for the day we get it wrong." Matthew Shadwick, Ladbrokes, 2010-02-25. See Ladbrokes Election Forecast Feb 25th 2010
researchgate.net
Adjusting Bookmaker’s Odds to Allow for Overround[2]
sciencedirect.com
On determining probability forecasts from betting odds[3]
