Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)" in English language version.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, was among those advising government on how to control the epidemic a decade ago.
The quality of fit of the model to the data was good (Fig. 3, A through C), given the fluctuating nature of daily case reports. Incidence predictions are plotted (Fig. 3D) for the best fit model and for the parameter sets corresponding to the upper and lower 95% confidence bounds on predicted total epidemic size (measured by R 0). The 95% confidence bounds on the final size of the epidemic were estimated as 44 to 64% of the population at risk. Here we assume the population at risk to be the approximately 45,000 farms in the currently infected areas in Great Britain, under the presumption that infection is prevented from spreading further.
The quality of fit of the model to the data was good (Fig. 3, A through C), given the fluctuating nature of daily case reports. Incidence predictions are plotted (Fig. 3D) for the best fit model and for the parameter sets corresponding to the upper and lower 95% confidence bounds on predicted total epidemic size (measured by R 0). The 95% confidence bounds on the final size of the epidemic were estimated as 44 to 64% of the population at risk. Here we assume the population at risk to be the approximately 45,000 farms in the currently infected areas in Great Britain, under the presumption that infection is prevented from spreading further.
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: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)defended by his wife's mother, who said he and her daughter Kim Polgreen [...] Dr Ferguson and her daughter Kim – who have a 16-year-old son together
The quality of fit of the model to the data was good (Fig. 3, A through C), given the fluctuating nature of daily case reports. Incidence predictions are plotted (Fig. 3D) for the best fit model and for the parameter sets corresponding to the upper and lower 95% confidence bounds on predicted total epidemic size (measured by R 0). The 95% confidence bounds on the final size of the epidemic were estimated as 44 to 64% of the population at risk. Here we assume the population at risk to be the approximately 45,000 farms in the currently infected areas in Great Britain, under the presumption that infection is prevented from spreading further.
The quality of fit of the model to the data was good (Fig. 3, A through C), given the fluctuating nature of daily case reports. Incidence predictions are plotted (Fig. 3D) for the best fit model and for the parameter sets corresponding to the upper and lower 95% confidence bounds on predicted total epidemic size (measured by R 0). The 95% confidence bounds on the final size of the epidemic were estimated as 44 to 64% of the population at risk. Here we assume the population at risk to be the approximately 45,000 farms in the currently infected areas in Great Britain, under the presumption that infection is prevented from spreading further.
The Imperial team alone had much to offer. Dr Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist, had already started to analyse the numbers. He was alarmed by what his computer seemed to be saying: the disease was out of control.
Professor Neil Ferguson's computer coding was derided as "totally unreliable" by leading figures
Professor Neil Ferguson's computer coding was derided as "totally unreliable" by leading figures