Prediction market (English Wikipedia)

Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "Prediction market" in English language version.

refsWebsite

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12doi.org

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9worldcat.org

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7web.archive.org

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5nih.gov

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4harvard.edu

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3archive.today

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2politico.com

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2cnn.com

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2reuters.com

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2semanticscholar.org

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2cnbc.com

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2slate.com

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2arxiv.org

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2uiowa.edu

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2gmu.edu

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1investopedia.com

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1nature.com

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1cia.gov

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1cometoknow.com

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1mercatus.org

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1arizona.edu

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1upenn.edu

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1qut.edu.au

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1economist.com

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1informs.org

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1jrbooksonline.com

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1uvm.edu

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1fortune.com

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archive.today

Lisa Pauline, Mattackal (4 November 2024). "Cryptoverse: U.S. election speculators play the prediction markets". Reuters. Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Pravin Char. Bengaluru. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.
Fox, Matthew (5 November 2024). "The surge in election betting has catapulted Kalshi and Polymarket to the top of Apple's App Store". Business Insider. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.
Mangan, Dan (2 October 2024). "Kalshi resumes taking bets on U.S. election after appeals court lifts freeze". CNBC. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.

arizona.edu

econ.arizona.edu

Steven Gjerstad. ""Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium""(PDF). Econ.arizona.edu. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 April 2014. Retrieved 20 August 2016.

arstechnica.com

O'Grady, Cathleen (28 January 2017). "Crowds are wise enough to know when other people will get it wrong". Ars Technica. Condé Nast. Retrieved 19 April 2021.

arxiv.org

Sun, Wei; Hanson, Robin; Laskey, Kathryn; Twardy, Charles (16 October 2012). "Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets". Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2012). arXiv:1210.4900. Bibcode:2012arXiv1210.4900S.
Sun, Wei; Laskey, Kathryn; Twardy, Charles; Hanson, Robin; Goldfedder, Brandon (2014). "Trade-based Asset Model using Dynamic Junction Tree for Combinatorial Prediction Markets". arXiv:1406.7583. Bibcode:2014arXiv1406.7583S. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)

axios.com

Dale, Brady (19 November 2024). "Predicting the future for prediction markets". Axios. Retrieved 27 November 2024.

businessinsider.com

Fox, Matthew (5 November 2024). "The surge in election betting has catapulted Kalshi and Polymarket to the top of Apple's App Store". Business Insider. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.

cia.gov

"Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence Capabilities". Central Intelligence Agency. 6 April 2007. Archived from the original on 13 June 2007. Retrieved 3 February 2017.

cnbc.com

Levingston, Ivan (28 July 2016). "Why political polls and betting odds disagree with each other so much". CNBC. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
Mangan, Dan (2 October 2024). "Kalshi resumes taking bets on U.S. election after appeals court lifts freeze". CNBC. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.

cnn.com

edition.cnn.com

Blackburn, Piper Hudspeth (2 October 2024). "Federal appeals court allows prediction market Kalshi to offer US election betting". CNN. Retrieved 11 December 2024.
Morrow, Allison (8 November 2024). "How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't". CNN. Retrieved 27 November 2024.

cometoknow.com

Oliver (22 October 2007). "PMIA". Come to Know. Archived from the original on 30 October 2018.

davidsj.com

"Idea Futures Exchanges". Archived from the original on 20 April 2008. Retrieved 5 October 2008.

doi.org

Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2004). "Historical Presidential Betting Markets" (PDF). Journal of Economic Perspectives. 18 (2): 127–142. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.360.4347. doi:10.1257/0895330041371277.
Galton, Francis (1907). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. doi:10.1038/075450a0. ISSN 0028-0836.
Jan Lorenz, Heiko Rauhut, Frank Schweitzer, and Dirk Helbing (16 May 2011). "How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108 (22): 9020–9025. Bibcode:2011PNAS..108.9020L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1008636108. PMC 3107299. PMID 21576485.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
Polgreen, P. M.; Nelson, F. D.; Neumann, G. R.; Weinstein, R. A. (15 January 2007). "Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 44 (2): 272–279. doi:10.1086/510427. ISSN 1058-4838. PMID 17173231.
Dana, Jason; Atanasov, Pavel; Tetlock, Philip; Mellers, Barbara (1 January 2023). "Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of "just asking"". Judgment and Decision Making. 14 (2): 135–147. doi:10.1017/S1930297500003375. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having yielded more accurate probability estimates than opinion polls or experts for a wide variety of events
Page, Lionel; Clemen, Robert T. (2013). "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well-Calibrated Probability Forecasts?" (PDF). The Economic Journal. 123 (568): 491–513. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02561.x. S2CID 152567648.
Polgreen, Philip M.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Neumann, George R. (15 January 2007). "Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 44 (2): 272–279. doi:10.1086/510427. ISSN 1537-6591. PMID 17173231.
Berg, Joyce E.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Rietz, Thomas A. (1 April 2008). "Prediction market accuracy in the long run". International Journal of Forecasting. US Presidential Election Forecasting. 24 (2): 285–300. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007. ISSN 0169-2070.
Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara (22 April 2016). "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls". Management Science. 63 (3): 691–706. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374. ISSN 0025-1909.
Mann, Adam (20 October 2016). "The power of prediction markets". Nature News. 538 (7625): 308–310. Bibcode:2016Natur.538..308M. doi:10.1038/538308a. PMID 27762382.
Rosenbloom, E. S.; Notz, William (1 February 2006). "Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus Play-Money Prediction Markets". Electronic Markets. 16 (1): 63–69. doi:10.1080/10196780500491303. ISSN 1019-6781.
Hanson, Robin (January 2003). "Combinatorial Information Market Design" (PDF). Information Systems Frontiers. 5 (1): 107–119. doi:10.1023/A:1022058209073. S2CID 7429015.

economist.com

"Who said Brexit was a surprise?". The Economist. 24 June 2016. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 3 February 2017.

fortune.com

Schwartz, Leo. "Kalshi points to a Trump win. Its 28-year-old CEO says the betting market is more reliable than polling". Fortune. Retrieved 27 November 2024.

ft.com

"How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. 19 December 2022. Retrieved 22 December 2022.

gmu.edu

hanson.gmu.edu

"manipulation2.dvi" (PDF). Hanson.gmu.edu. Retrieved 20 August 2016.

mason.gmu.edu

Hanson, Robin (January 2003). "Combinatorial Information Market Design" (PDF). Information Systems Frontiers. 5 (1): 107–119. doi:10.1023/A:1022058209073. S2CID 7429015.

harvard.edu

ui.adsabs.harvard.edu

Jan Lorenz, Heiko Rauhut, Frank Schweitzer, and Dirk Helbing (16 May 2011). "How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108 (22): 9020–9025. Bibcode:2011PNAS..108.9020L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1008636108. PMC 3107299. PMID 21576485.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
Mann, Adam (20 October 2016). "The power of prediction markets". Nature News. 538 (7625): 308–310. Bibcode:2016Natur.538..308M. doi:10.1038/538308a. PMID 27762382.
Sun, Wei; Hanson, Robin; Laskey, Kathryn; Twardy, Charles (16 October 2012). "Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets". Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2012). arXiv:1210.4900. Bibcode:2012arXiv1210.4900S.
Sun, Wei; Laskey, Kathryn; Twardy, Charles; Hanson, Robin; Goldfedder, Brandon (2014). "Trade-based Asset Model using Dynamic Junction Tree for Combinatorial Prediction Markets". arXiv:1406.7583. Bibcode:2014arXiv1406.7583S. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)

ieee.org

ieeexplore.ieee.org

Laskey, K. B.; Hanson, R.; Twardy, C. (9 July 2015). "Combinatorial prediction markets for fusing information from distributed experts and models". 2015 18th International Conference on Information Fusion (Fusion): 1892–1898.

informs.org

pubsonline.informs.org

Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara (22 April 2016). "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls". Management Science. 63 (3): 691–706. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374. ISSN 0025-1909.

investopedia.com

"Prediction Market". Investopedia.

jrbooksonline.com

a scenario described by Jim Bell in 1997. Bell, Jim (3 April 1997). "Assassination Politics" (PDF). Infowar. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 January 2011. Retrieved 28 February 2011.

ku.edu

news.ku.edu

"Like polls, prediction markets failed to see Trump's victory coming, economist says". The University of Kansas. 9 November 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2017.

mercatus.org

Ozimek, Adam (2014). "The Regulation and Value of Prediction Markets" (PDF). mercatus.org/system/files/Ozimek_PredictionMarkets_v1.pdf.

nature.com

Galton, Francis (1907). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. doi:10.1038/075450a0. ISSN 0028-0836.

nih.gov

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Jan Lorenz, Heiko Rauhut, Frank Schweitzer, and Dirk Helbing (16 May 2011). "How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108 (22): 9020–9025. Bibcode:2011PNAS..108.9020L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1008636108. PMC 3107299. PMID 21576485.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
Polgreen, P. M.; Nelson, F. D.; Neumann, G. R.; Weinstein, R. A. (15 January 2007). "Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 44 (2): 272–279. doi:10.1086/510427. ISSN 1058-4838. PMID 17173231.
Polgreen, Philip M.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Neumann, George R. (15 January 2007). "Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 44 (2): 272–279. doi:10.1086/510427. ISSN 1537-6591. PMID 17173231.
Mann, Adam (20 October 2016). "The power of prediction markets". Nature News. 538 (7625): 308–310. Bibcode:2016Natur.538..308M. doi:10.1038/538308a. PMID 27762382.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Jan Lorenz, Heiko Rauhut, Frank Schweitzer, and Dirk Helbing (16 May 2011). "How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108 (22): 9020–9025. Bibcode:2011PNAS..108.9020L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1008636108. PMC 3107299. PMID 21576485.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

nytimes.com

Lohr, Steve (9 April 2008). "Betting to Improve the Odds". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 3 February 2017.

politico.com

Harty, Declan (2 October 2024). "Political bettors hit the jackpot as court clears election markets for comeback". POLITICO. Retrieved 11 December 2024.
Katy Bachman (31 October 2014). "Meet the 'stock market' for politics". Politico. Retrieved 25 January 2015.

psu.edu

citeseerx.ist.psu.edu

Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2004). "Historical Presidential Betting Markets" (PDF). Journal of Economic Perspectives. 18 (2): 127–142. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.360.4347. doi:10.1257/0895330041371277.

qut.edu.au

eprints.qut.edu.au

Page, Lionel; Clemen, Robert T. (2013). "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well-Calibrated Probability Forecasts?" (PDF). The Economic Journal. 123 (568): 491–513. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02561.x. S2CID 152567648.

reuters.com

Matthews, Laura (2 October 2024). "US appeals court clears Kalshi to restart elections betting". Reuters.
Lisa Pauline, Mattackal (4 November 2024). "Cryptoverse: U.S. election speculators play the prediction markets". Reuters. Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Pravin Char. Bengaluru. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.

sciencedirect.com

Berg, Joyce E.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Rietz, Thomas A. (1 April 2008). "Prediction market accuracy in the long run". International Journal of Forecasting. US Presidential Election Forecasting. 24 (2): 285–300. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007. ISSN 0169-2070.

semanticscholar.org

api.semanticscholar.org

Page, Lionel; Clemen, Robert T. (2013). "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well-Calibrated Probability Forecasts?" (PDF). The Economic Journal. 123 (568): 491–513. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02561.x. S2CID 152567648.
Hanson, Robin (January 2003). "Combinatorial Information Market Design" (PDF). Information Systems Frontiers. 5 (1): 107–119. doi:10.1023/A:1022058209073. S2CID 7429015.

slate.com

Gelman, Andrew; Rothschild, David (12 July 2016). "Something's Odd About the Political Betting Markets". Slate. ISSN 1091-2339. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
Rothschild, Andrew Gelman, David (12 July 2016). "Something's Odd About the Political Betting Markets". Slate Magazine. Retrieved 12 February 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

tandfonline.com

Rosenbloom, E. S.; Notz, William (1 February 2006). "Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus Play-Money Prediction Markets". Electronic Markets. 16 (1): 63–69. doi:10.1080/10196780500491303. ISSN 1019-6781.

uiowa.edu

tippie.uiowa.edu

Stanley W. Angrist (28 August 1995). "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates (Reprinted with Permission of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)". The University of Iowa, Henry B. Tippie College of Business. Archived from the original on 30 November 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2012.

biz.uiowa.edu

Berg, Joyce (2007). "Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering" (PDF).

upenn.edu

bpp.wharton.upenn.edu

Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz. ""Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities"" (PDF). Bpp.wharton.upenn.edu. Archived from the original (PDF)on 12 November 2012. Retrieved 20 August 2016.

uvm.edu

Rhode, Paul W.; Strumpf, Koleman S. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets" (PDF). Journal of Economic Perspectives: 128.

vox.com

Piper, Kelsey (8 April 2020). "Predictions are hard, especially about the coronavirus". Vox. Retrieved 28 November 2020.

web.archive.org

Stanley W. Angrist (28 August 1995). "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates (Reprinted with Permission of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)". The University of Iowa, Henry B. Tippie College of Business. Archived from the original on 30 November 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
"Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence Capabilities". Central Intelligence Agency. 6 April 2007. Archived from the original on 13 June 2007. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
Oliver (22 October 2007). "PMIA". Come to Know. Archived from the original on 30 October 2018.
Steven Gjerstad. ""Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium""(PDF). Econ.arizona.edu. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 April 2014. Retrieved 20 August 2016.
Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz. ""Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities"" (PDF). Bpp.wharton.upenn.edu. Archived from the original (PDF)on 12 November 2012. Retrieved 20 August 2016.
"Idea Futures Exchanges". Archived from the original on 20 April 2008. Retrieved 5 October 2008.
a scenario described by Jim Bell in 1997. Bell, Jim (3 April 1997). "Assassination Politics" (PDF). Infowar. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 January 2011. Retrieved 28 February 2011.

wfu.edu

users.wfu.edu

Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2008). "Historical Election Betting Markets: An International Perspective" (PDF). Perspectives on Politics.
Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2004). "Historical Presidential Betting Markets" (PDF). Journal of Economic Perspectives. 18 (2): 127–142. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.360.4347. doi:10.1257/0895330041371277.

worldcat.org

search.worldcat.org

Galton, Francis (1907). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. doi:10.1038/075450a0. ISSN 0028-0836.
Polgreen, P. M.; Nelson, F. D.; Neumann, G. R.; Weinstein, R. A. (15 January 2007). "Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 44 (2): 272–279. doi:10.1086/510427. ISSN 1058-4838. PMID 17173231.
Polgreen, Philip M.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Neumann, George R. (15 January 2007). "Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 44 (2): 272–279. doi:10.1086/510427. ISSN 1537-6591. PMID 17173231.
Lohr, Steve (9 April 2008). "Betting to Improve the Odds". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
"Who said Brexit was a surprise?". The Economist. 24 June 2016. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
Gelman, Andrew; Rothschild, David (12 July 2016). "Something's Odd About the Political Betting Markets". Slate. ISSN 1091-2339. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
Berg, Joyce E.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Rietz, Thomas A. (1 April 2008). "Prediction market accuracy in the long run". International Journal of Forecasting. US Presidential Election Forecasting. 24 (2): 285–300. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007. ISSN 0169-2070.
Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara (22 April 2016). "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls". Management Science. 63 (3): 691–706. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374. ISSN 0025-1909.
Rosenbloom, E. S.; Notz, William (1 February 2006). "Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus Play-Money Prediction Markets". Electronic Markets. 16 (1): 63–69. doi:10.1080/10196780500491303. ISSN 1019-6781.