The Wisdom of Crowds (English Wikipedia)

Analysis of information sources in references of the Wikipedia article "The Wisdom of Crowds" in English language version.

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archive.org

  • Introduction (p. XII): Although Surowiecki's description of the "averaging" calculation (p. XIII) implies that Galton first calculated the mean, inspection of the original 1907 paper indicates that Galton considered the median the best reflection of the crowd's estimate. (Galton, Francis (1907-03-07). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. Bibcode:1907Natur..75..450G. doi:10.1038/075450a0. S2CID 4013898. the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi). Galton's quotation from the end of this paper (given by Surowiecki on page XIII) actually refers to the surprising proximity of the median and the measurement, and not to the (much closer) agreement of mean and measurement (which is the context Surowiecki gives it in). The mean (only 1 pound, rather than 9, from the ox's weight) was only calculated in Galton's subsequent reply to a letter from a reader, though he still advocates use of the median over any of the "several kinds" of mean (Galton, Francis (1907-03-28). "Letters to the Editor: The Ballot-Box". Nature. 75 (1952): 509. doi:10.1038/075509e0. S2CID 3996739. my proposal that juries should openly adopt the median when estimating damages, and councils when estimating money grants, has independent merits of its own); he thinks the median, which is analogous to the 50% +1 vote, particularly democratic.

bbc.co.uk

news.bbc.co.uk

bloomberg.com

discovery.com

news.discovery.com

doi.org

  • Introduction (p. XII): Although Surowiecki's description of the "averaging" calculation (p. XIII) implies that Galton first calculated the mean, inspection of the original 1907 paper indicates that Galton considered the median the best reflection of the crowd's estimate. (Galton, Francis (1907-03-07). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. Bibcode:1907Natur..75..450G. doi:10.1038/075450a0. S2CID 4013898. the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi). Galton's quotation from the end of this paper (given by Surowiecki on page XIII) actually refers to the surprising proximity of the median and the measurement, and not to the (much closer) agreement of mean and measurement (which is the context Surowiecki gives it in). The mean (only 1 pound, rather than 9, from the ox's weight) was only calculated in Galton's subsequent reply to a letter from a reader, though he still advocates use of the median over any of the "several kinds" of mean (Galton, Francis (1907-03-28). "Letters to the Editor: The Ballot-Box". Nature. 75 (1952): 509. doi:10.1038/075509e0. S2CID 3996739. my proposal that juries should openly adopt the median when estimating damages, and councils when estimating money grants, has independent merits of its own); he thinks the median, which is analogous to the 50% +1 vote, particularly democratic.
  • Recent research in the Galton Archive at University College, London, has found some small discrepancies between the original data and the results printed in Galton's articles, such that the mean estimate exactly coincides with the correct weight of the dressed ox. Had he known the true outcome, Surowiecki's conclusion on the wisdom of the Plymouth crowd would no doubt have been more strongly expressed. (Wallis, K.F. (2014), "Revisiting Francis Galton's forecasting competition", Statistical Science, 29, 420–424. doi:10.1214/14-STS468.)
  • Rosenberg, Louis B.; A.I., Unanimous (8 June 2017). "Human Swarms, a real-time method for collective intelligence". 07/20/2015-07/24/2015. Vol. 13. San Francisco, CA. pp. 658–659. doi:10.7551/978-0-262-33027-5-ch117. ISBN 978-0262330275. S2CID 27308281. Archived from the original on 27 October 2015.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)

galton.org

  • Introduction (p. XII): Although Surowiecki's description of the "averaging" calculation (p. XIII) implies that Galton first calculated the mean, inspection of the original 1907 paper indicates that Galton considered the median the best reflection of the crowd's estimate. (Galton, Francis (1907-03-07). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. Bibcode:1907Natur..75..450G. doi:10.1038/075450a0. S2CID 4013898. the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi). Galton's quotation from the end of this paper (given by Surowiecki on page XIII) actually refers to the surprising proximity of the median and the measurement, and not to the (much closer) agreement of mean and measurement (which is the context Surowiecki gives it in). The mean (only 1 pound, rather than 9, from the ox's weight) was only calculated in Galton's subsequent reply to a letter from a reader, though he still advocates use of the median over any of the "several kinds" of mean (Galton, Francis (1907-03-28). "Letters to the Editor: The Ballot-Box". Nature. 75 (1952): 509. doi:10.1038/075509e0. S2CID 3996739. my proposal that juries should openly adopt the median when estimating damages, and councils when estimating money grants, has independent merits of its own); he thinks the median, which is analogous to the 50% +1 vote, particularly democratic.

guardian.co.uk

observer.guardian.co.uk

harvard.edu

ui.adsabs.harvard.edu

  • Introduction (p. XII): Although Surowiecki's description of the "averaging" calculation (p. XIII) implies that Galton first calculated the mean, inspection of the original 1907 paper indicates that Galton considered the median the best reflection of the crowd's estimate. (Galton, Francis (1907-03-07). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. Bibcode:1907Natur..75..450G. doi:10.1038/075450a0. S2CID 4013898. the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi). Galton's quotation from the end of this paper (given by Surowiecki on page XIII) actually refers to the surprising proximity of the median and the measurement, and not to the (much closer) agreement of mean and measurement (which is the context Surowiecki gives it in). The mean (only 1 pound, rather than 9, from the ox's weight) was only calculated in Galton's subsequent reply to a letter from a reader, though he still advocates use of the median over any of the "several kinds" of mean (Galton, Francis (1907-03-28). "Letters to the Editor: The Ballot-Box". Nature. 75 (1952): 509. doi:10.1038/075509e0. S2CID 3996739. my proposal that juries should openly adopt the median when estimating damages, and councils when estimating money grants, has independent merits of its own); he thinks the median, which is analogous to the 50% +1 vote, particularly democratic.

martinblueprint.co.uk

mit.edu

mitpress.mit.edu

oreilly.com

oreillynet.com

conferences.oreillynet.com

semanticscholar.org

api.semanticscholar.org

  • Introduction (p. XII): Although Surowiecki's description of the "averaging" calculation (p. XIII) implies that Galton first calculated the mean, inspection of the original 1907 paper indicates that Galton considered the median the best reflection of the crowd's estimate. (Galton, Francis (1907-03-07). "Vox Populi". Nature. 75 (1949): 450–451. Bibcode:1907Natur..75..450G. doi:10.1038/075450a0. S2CID 4013898. the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi). Galton's quotation from the end of this paper (given by Surowiecki on page XIII) actually refers to the surprising proximity of the median and the measurement, and not to the (much closer) agreement of mean and measurement (which is the context Surowiecki gives it in). The mean (only 1 pound, rather than 9, from the ox's weight) was only calculated in Galton's subsequent reply to a letter from a reader, though he still advocates use of the median over any of the "several kinds" of mean (Galton, Francis (1907-03-28). "Letters to the Editor: The Ballot-Box". Nature. 75 (1952): 509. doi:10.1038/075509e0. S2CID 3996739. my proposal that juries should openly adopt the median when estimating damages, and councils when estimating money grants, has independent merits of its own); he thinks the median, which is analogous to the 50% +1 vote, particularly democratic.
  • Rosenberg, Louis B.; A.I., Unanimous (8 June 2017). "Human Swarms, a real-time method for collective intelligence". 07/20/2015-07/24/2015. Vol. 13. San Francisco, CA. pp. 658–659. doi:10.7551/978-0-262-33027-5-ch117. ISBN 978-0262330275. S2CID 27308281. Archived from the original on 27 October 2015.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)

sky.com

news.sky.com

ssrn.com

papers.ssrn.com

  • Rothschild, David M.; Wolfers, Justin (2011-07-12). "Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions Versus Expectations". SSRN 1884644.

umich.edu

sites.lsa.umich.edu

unanimousai.com

web.archive.org

york.ac.uk

cs.york.ac.uk