Plaut (8 January 2021). “Eritrea in the Tigray war: What we know and why it might backfire”. African Arguments. The Royal African Society. 22 August 2021閲覧。 “Tigray's regional capital, Mekelle, fell with hardly a fight but only because Tigrayan fighters withdrew in order to resort to tactics they adopted decades ago. The TPLF has always believed in war of manoeuvre rather than positional war – taking to the hills and mountains and attacking in the rear. The Tigray war is unlikely to be a brief conflict or produce an easy victory for Abiy and Isaias. As a Reuters report explains, the TPLF "is battle-hardened from both the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea and the guerrilla war to topple dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.”
“Ethiopia's Tigray War: A Deadly, Dangerous Stalemate”. Crisis Group. The International Crisis Group (2 April 2021). 22 August 2021閲覧。 “All sides in the conflict in Ethiopia's northernmost region appear to be girding for a protracted battle. The Tigrayan leadership, though driven from power in Mekelle, the region's capital, has rallied under the banner of the Tigray Defence Forces, an armed resistance group. It is led by the removed Tigrayan leaders and commanded by former high-ranking Ethiopian National Defence Force officers. It currently operates primarily from rural areas in central and southern Tigray, while federal troops control the main roads and urban areas. Eritrean soldiers have their heaviest presence in northern Tigray and Amhara forces patrol western Tigray and the far south. All sides are fixated on securing a military victory. None appears capable of achieving one in the near term. The Tigrayan resistance appears to enjoy broad support in the region, while federal authorities and their allies are determined to capture its leaders and put them on trial. The parties' positioning means that the conflict could well last for months, or even years, an outcome that would be even more disastrous for Tigray and the rest of the country.”
Walsh, Declan (7 April 2021). “Why Is Ethiopia at War With Itself?”. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-conflict-explained.html3 May 2021閲覧. "As fighting erupted, Tigray officials declared that soldiers from the Northern Command of the Ethiopian military had defected and sided with them.... But although federal forces quickly seized control of Tigray's main towns, the T.P.L.F. and its armed supporters fled to rural and mountainous areas, where sporadic fighting continued through February."
Marks, Simon (22 January 2021). “On 'Rooftop of Africa,' Ethiopia's Troops Hunt Fugitive Former Rulers”. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-conflict-abiy.html3 May 2021閲覧. "And the top military commanders of the T.P.L.F. remain at large. Two Western officials and one with the T.P.L.F., who was not authorized to speak publicly, identified Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a former head of the Ethiopian military, as a senior rebel leader. General Tsadkan led Ethiopia into combat against Eritrea during the two countries' brutal border war between 1998 and 2000. In recent years, after retiring from the army, he ran a small brewery. Now 66, he is back in the fight with the newly formed Tigray Defense Forces, battling the Ethiopian army he once commanded."
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Stijn Mitzer (1 September 2021). “The Tigray Defence Forces - Documenting Its Heavy Weaponry”. Oryx Blog. 2 September 2021閲覧。 “A detailed list of heavy weaponry confirmed to have been operated by the Tigray Defence Forces can be viewed below. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available. This list only includes vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment captured and operated by Tigray forces is significantly higher than what is recorded here. Tigray was home to a significant portion of the Ethiopian Army's heavy weaponry, much of which fell in the hands of Tigray forces in November 2020. Large numbers were subsequently recaptured by Ethiopia however, and therefore could not be included in the list.”
Fick, Maggie (10 November 2020). “Battle-hardy Tigray back in spotlight as Ethiopia conflict flares”. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-conflict-tigray-idUSL8N2HV76C3 May 2021閲覧. "Tigrayan forces and militia are battle-hardened, have large stocks of military hardware and number up to 250,000 men, experts say. Federal authorities have restricted access to the region, making it hard to verify details of the fighting. However, there are indications that Tigrayans in the powerful Northern Command, which accounts for about half of the federal army's manpower and its best divisions, are defecting. Local forces are already in control of its headquarters in Mekelle and other army facilities in Tigray, according to a United Nations internal security report seen by Reuters. Ethiopia expert Alex de Waal said Abiy may have underestimated the Tigray leaders' skills in both politics and war. The Tufts University academic recalled the words of Tsadkan Gebretensae, a Tigrayan who once commanded Ethiopia's army against Eritrea, in a conversation with him: "War is primarily an intellectual activity""
Lefort (30 April 2021). “Ethiopia's war in Tigray is 'but the tip of the iceberg when it comes to conflicts ravaging the country'”. The Africa Report. 5 May 2021閲覧。 “Last year, Tigray's leaders underestimated their weaknesses. The region's security forces were swept away in the conventional conflict and largely unprepared to shift to guerrilla warfare after Mekelle was captured on 28 November. Even the grassroots party-state apparatus has vanished. In a 27 March phone discussion with Alex de Waal [Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation and a professor at the Fletcher School, Tufts University], the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) veteran Mulugeta Gebrehiwot, who has joined the armed struggle, said: "the former administration of the TPLF has collapsed… The administrators just ran away." He added that four and half months after the war started, "there is a zonal army that is organized in several places," which means this is not the case everywhere in Tigray. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and TPLF leadership have since avoided being wiped out, thanks to the resistance against the 'invasion' which has been spontaneously and autonomously built from both the civilian and militia grassroots and among scattered TDF units. The Tigrayans then came back to their age-old structure: the villages' self-organization. "The farmers in each locality asked [the administrators] not to return back; they said 'we don't need you, we will choose our own,'" said Mulugeta. "So, at the village level, they have a committee of seven, sometimes without any former cadre." In Tigray, the power pyramid was top-heavy. That top has been broken and is under reconstruction. At this stage, the most solid part of the pyramid lies at its bottom. The main Tigrayan war force now is the village-level popular resistance and the TDF military apparatus, which has been progressively regrouped from the remnants of the regional security forces and defected Tigrayan federal soldiers. This resistance will not be crushed even if the top leaders of the 'junta' are killed or captured.”
